Are IB predicted grades decided by the IB or by the school?

IB predicted grades are determined by teachers and the school, not awarded centrally by the IB. Teachers base them on evidence of the student's work and their understanding of IB assessment standards. The school may also moderate predictions across departments to check consistency. The IB does not impose one calculation formula that every school must use. Final IB grades, unlike predictions, are awarded after official assessment and moderation.

Can parents ask a school to change an IB predicted grade?

Parents can ask the school to explain or review a prediction, but they cannot require a particular grade. A reasonable review should focus on calculation errors, overlooked evidence, inconsistent procedures, or documented circumstances. The student should normally speak with the subject teacher before the parent approaches the counsellor or DP coordinator. Any reconsideration depends on school policy and must usually happen before the application is submitted. Needing a higher grade for a chosen university is not, by itself, academic evidence for changing the prediction.

Do universities look at the total IB prediction or individual subjects?

Universities may examine both the total prediction and individual subject grades. Selective courses often require particular Higher Level subjects, minimum HL grades, or an approved Mathematics course. A student can therefore meet the overall point expectation while missing a subject-specific requirement. Admissions teams may also consider previous results, the school reference, written work, tests, interviews, or contextual information. Families should check the official requirements for the exact course and entry year rather than relying on a general university-wide score.

What happens if final IB grades are lower than predicted grades?

A lower final result does not change the prediction retrospectively, but it may affect a conditional university offer. The university will compare the official result with every condition stated in the offer, including the total and any required subject grades. If the student misses a condition, the university may still accept the student, offer an alternative, or decline the place. The outcome depends on institutional policy, available places, and the size and nature of the shortfall. Students should follow the university's instructions promptly rather than assuming that a one-point miss will be ignored.

When are predicted grades normally finalised for IB students?

There is no universal IB date on which every school must finalise university-facing predictions. Schools plan around their own evidence cycles, internal application deadlines, and the admissions systems their students use. For early applications, predictions may need to be settled in September or early October of DP2. Other applications may allow schools to consider assessments completed later in the term. Parents should ask for the school's exact finalisation date and whether new evidence can be reviewed before submission.

How can parents support improvement without increasing pressure?

Parents can help the student turn a broad grade concern into a small number of measurable tasks. Useful questions focus on the next assessment, the most important weakness, and the evidence that would demonstrate improvement. A calm weekly review is usually more effective than daily checking or comparisons with classmates. Parents can also protect time for sleep, regular study, and application work rather than adding unsustainable tutoring or practice. The aim is to support consistent performance that teachers can verify, not to manufacture a short-lived increase before a deadline.

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Understanding Predicted Grades for University Applications

IB Diploma Parent Guides IB Study Guides

• 21 Sept 2026•9

Understanding Predicted Grades for University Applications

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Understanding Predicted Grades for University… | RevisionDojo

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Understanding Predicted Grades for University Applications

IB Diploma Parent Guides IB Study Guides

• 21 Sept 2026•9

Understanding predicted grades before university application season helps parents interpret an important forecast without mistaking it for a final result. An IB predicted grade is an evidence-based judgement made by the school, while the final grade is awarded after official IB assessment. Universities may use predictions to shortlist applicants or issue conditional offers, but their importance varies by institution and country.

For families, the September-November period can feel compressed because assessments, references, course research, and application deadlines overlap. The priority is to understand what the prediction represents, how it was determined, and whether the student's complete subject profile meets each course's requirements.

What an IB predicted grade means

The IB explanation of predicted grades defines a prediction as the teacher's judgement of the grade a candidate is expected to achieve, based on the student's work and the teacher's knowledge of IB standards. Each Diploma Programme subject is predicted on the 1-7 scale.

Predictions are also made for Theory of Knowledge (TOK) and the Extended Essay (EE). A school can therefore calculate an expected Diploma total out of 45 points, with up to 42 subject points and 3 core points.

A predicted grade is not a final IB result, a guaranteed outcome, or a reward for effort. It is also not necessarily a simple average of classroom marks. Schools may distinguish between grades used for university applications and predictions submitted later through IB procedures, so parents should ask which grades they are seeing and where they will be sent.

How schools determine predicted grades

The IB provides assessment standards, but it does not prescribe one calculation formula for every school. Schools may consider mock examinations, timed tests, essays, practical work, internal assessment progress, classroom performance, and recent improvement.

Evidence	What it indicates	Limitation
Mock examinations	Performance across substantial content under timed conditions	One sitting may be affected by illness or poor timing
Tests and essays	Understanding of specific topics and skills	They may cover only part of the course
IA progress	Criterion-based coursework performance	A draft may not represent the final submission
Performance trend	Sustained improvement or decline	Improvement must be supported by repeated evidence

Departments may moderate predictions to improve consistency between teachers. Consequently, one unusually strong test may not justify a higher forecast if the wider evidence remains at a lower level.

Parents should request the school's written policy, evidence window, internal deadline, and review procedure. The RevisionDojo parent guide to IB coordinators and predicted grades suggests constructive questions for this discussion.

How universities use predicted grades

Students often apply before completing final examinations, so predictions give admissions teams an informed indication of likely attainment. Universities may examine:

The predicted Diploma total
Individual Higher Level grades
Required subjects or Mathematics courses
Previous school results and academic trajectory
References, essays, portfolios, interviews, or admissions tests
Contextual information and documented circumstances

A course requiring 38 points with 6, 6, 6 at Higher Level is not automatically satisfied by a 39-point prediction. A profile of 7, 6, 5 may miss the condition, especially if the 5 is in a required subject. The guide to what universities examine in predicted grades explains why the subject profile matters alongside the total.

In the United Kingdom, predictions commonly support conditional offers through UCAS. US institutions usually consider them within a broader application review. Canadian universities may use predicted results for provisional decisions and request official results later, as shown by the University of Toronto Mississauga IB guidance. Applicants should always check the exact course, entry year, and applicant category.

The September-November application timeline

September: establish the facts

Ask when predictions will be finalised, which remaining assessments count, and when the application must reach the school counsellor. Internal deadlines are often earlier than published university deadlines because staff need time to verify qualifications, predictions, and references.

Create a table recording each course's overall points, required HL grades, prerequisite subjects, tests, portfolio requirements, and deadline. Classify choices as aspirational, realistic, or safer using the student's current evidence.

October: manage early applications

For 2027 UK entry, UCAS states that Oxford, Cambridge, and most medicine, dentistry, and veterinary medicine or science applications must arrive by 18:00 UK time on 15 October 2026. Most other UK undergraduate courses have an equal-consideration deadline of 13 January 2027. Families should verify dates through the official UCAS application deadlines and follow the school's earlier internal deadline.

November: review remaining options

Many non-UK early deadlines also fall around this period, but institutional requirements differ. In the Common App system, colleges determine which school, midyear, and final reports they require, as explained in the Common App recommendation forms guidance.

If a prediction is below the target

Identify the precise gap first. Missing one required HL point is different from being several points below the overall expectation.

The student should ask which evidence produced the prediction, what distinguishes the current grade from the next level, which assessments remain, and whether new evidence can be reviewed under school policy. A review is reasonable when evidence was overlooked, a calculation is wrong, procedures were inconsistent, or documented circumstances affected performance. Needing a higher prediction for a preferred university is not evidence by itself.

The RevisionDojo IB Grade Calculator can turn representative practice marks into an indicative profile, although it cannot produce an official prediction. Students can then use the process in the guide to interpreting and improving predicted grades: diagnose a specific weakness, practise under timed conditions, apply feedback, and retest.

Common mistakes to avoid

Parents should avoid comparing predictions across schools, focusing only on the total, demanding unsupported optimism, or waiting until the published university deadline. An inflated forecast can lead to an offer the student is unlikely to meet. Accurate predictions support a balanced application list and more realistic preparation.

Parents should know every subject prediction, the expected total, the evidence used, the internal deadline, and each course's subject requirements. Academic work must also continue after submission because final results normally determine whether conditional offers are confirmed.

Conclusion

Understanding predicted grades for university applications means treating them as evidence-based forecasts rather than promises or judgements of potential. Parents should clarify school procedures early, compare the full IB profile with exact course requirements, and respond to gaps through credible academic evidence.

RevisionDojo can support this process without replacing teacher judgement. The Grade Calculator, Questionbank, Mock Exams, and Jojo AI can help students identify weaknesses and prepare effectively for later assessments.