When parents ask IB coordinators about predicted grades, the central point is that these grades are evidence-based forecasts. They are not promises, rewards for effort, or numbers selected to match university entry requirements. Subject teachers estimate the result a student is expected to achieve, while the school checks that the process is accurate, consistent, and defensible.
Parents can help by understanding the evidence, deadlines, and review process. Productive discussions focus on how the prediction was reached and what the student can still improve, rather than negotiating for an extra point.
What an IB predicted grade means
The IB defines a predicted grade as the teacher's prediction of the grade a candidate is expected to achieve, based on available evidence and the teacher's knowledge of IB standards. Subject predictions use the 1-7 scale. Predictions are also required for Theory of Knowledge (TOK) and the Extended Essay (EE).
For a Diploma student, schools may calculate an expected total out of 45 points: up to 42 from six subjects and up to 3 from TOK and the EE. Creativity, activity, service does not add points, although completing CAS remains a Diploma requirement.
A predicted grade is not:
- A guaranteed final result
- A reward for effort, behaviour, or ambition
- A simple average of every course mark
- A final grade awarded by the IB
- A number chosen by parents or students
The IB explanation of student assessment says predictions should be as accurate as possible, without deliberate over-prediction or under-prediction.
Predicted grades and forecasted grades
Official terminology includes a distinction that many families never encounter. Estimates communicated to higher education institutions may be called forecasted grades, while grades submitted to the IB are called predicted grades. Schools and universities often use “predicted grades” for both.
The figures may be identical, but they can have different deadlines and purposes. A university forecast might be prepared months before the prediction submitted through the IB's assessment system. Parents should ask which set of grades is being discussed and when it becomes final.
How schools set IB predicted grades
The IB requires teachers to consider available evidence through their knowledge of IB standards, but it does not prescribe one numerical formula for every school. Consequently, schools can give different weight to mocks, timed tests, coursework, and performance over time.
| Evidence | What it demonstrates | Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Mock examinations | Performance across substantial content under time pressure | One result may be affected by illness or unusual circumstances |
| Timed assessments | Current knowledge, technique, and pacing | A short test may cover limited content |
| Internal Assessment work | Performance against subject-specific criteria | Drafts may be incomplete, and final marks remain subject to moderation |
| Essays, investigations, and problem sets | Patterns across topics and skills | Task difficulty and purpose must be considered |
| Performance over time | Consistency, improvement, or decline | Improvement must be demonstrated rather than assumed |
| Grade descriptors and criteria | The standard associated with each grade | Past boundaries cannot guarantee future boundaries |
Teachers usually seek a repeatable level of performance. One grade 7 on a short test does not automatically justify a predicted 7 if substantial timed work remains at grade 5 level. Equally, one weak result should not outweigh a wider body of reliable evidence.
RevisionDojo's guide to when and how IB predicted grades are set explains the typical timeline in more detail.
What the IB coordinator does
The subject teacher is normally best placed to make the initial prediction because that teacher has assessed the student's work against subject criteria. The coordinator oversees consistency and administration rather than personally calculating every grade.
A coordinator may:
- Publish internal deadlines and procedures
- Explain which evidence departments should consider
- Arrange standardisation or review of borderline cases
- Collate subject, TOK, and EE predictions
- Coordinate university application forecasts
- Explain the school's challenge procedure
- Submit required information through official systems
A coordinator should not raise a prediction simply because a university requires a higher score. The IB Programme standards and practices requires schools to maintain fair and consistent processes for reporting progress and handling challenges.
Why effort and university requirements are not enough
Effort matters when it produces stronger academic evidence, but a prediction answers a specific question: What grade is this student expected to achieve under final assessment conditions? It does not measure diligence, good intentions, or how strongly the student wants a university place.
An inflated prediction can lead to an unsuitable application list or a conditional offer that is difficult to meet. An accurate forecast supports ambitious but balanced choices.
Universities also use predictions differently. UK institutions commonly use them when deciding whether to make conditional offers, which may specify both a total Diploma score and particular Higher Level grades. Other systems may consider predictions alongside transcripts, recommendations, essays, tests, and activities.
For UCAS applications, predicted grades are supplied by the school or referee for pending qualifications. UCAS advises that they should be achievable, objective, data-driven, comprehensive, and based on professional judgement. Families can use RevisionDojo's guides to predicted grades and university offers and UCAS applications for IB families to distinguish school deadlines from admissions requirements.
What to do when a prediction seems too low
Begin by asking for the school's policy, evidence base, deadline, and review procedure. “Which assessed work supports this prediction?” is more constructive than asking for a point because an application needs it.
A sensible process is:
- Let the student speak with the subject teacher first.
- Ask what distinguishes the current work from the next grade.
- Identify assessments remaining before predictions are finalised.
- Present relevant marked work if evidence may have been overlooked.
- Follow the formal review route if there is an error or inconsistency.
- Involve the coordinator when the concern relates to procedure, deadlines, or several subjects.
There is no general parent appeal to the IB for a school-issued university forecast. Reviews are usually governed by school policy. The predicted grade appeals guide explains how to prepare an evidence-focused request.
How parents can support improvement
Ask which specific weakness limits the grade: knowledge, analysis, command terms, accuracy, structure, timing, or incomplete coursework. The student can then complete timed practice, identify lost marks, correct recurring weaknesses, and retest under comparable conditions. Several consistent results are stronger evidence than one unusually high score.
RevisionDojo's Questionbank supports targeted exam-style practice, while the IB Grade Calculator can turn representative marks into an indicative estimate. The calculator is a planning tool, not proof that a teacher must award a particular prediction. Parents preparing for a school meeting can also use the IB parent-teacher conference guide.
Common misunderstandings
- The coordinator decides every grade: Teachers usually make the academic judgement; the coordinator manages consistency and administration.
- One strong mock proves the higher grade: It matters, but teachers also consider coverage, reliability, and other evidence.
- Predictions can never change: They may change before the relevant deadline if school policy permits and substantial new evidence appears.
- A prediction is the final IB grade: Final results come from the IB assessment process, including examinations, externally assessed work, and moderated internal assessment.
Conclusion
IB coordinators want parents to understand that predicted grades must remain honest forecasts grounded in evidence and IB standards. Constructive conversations focus on the process, remaining opportunities, and realistic university choices. RevisionDojo's resources for IB parents, Questionbank, Grade Calculator, Mock Exams, and Jojo AI can support improvement without replacing teacher judgement.
Sources and referenced URLs
- IB student assessment and predicted grades
- IB Programme standards and practices
- IB Diploma Programme grade descriptors
- UCAS guidance on predicted grades
- When and how IB predicted grades are set
- Predicted grades and university offers
- UCAS applications for IB families
- IB predicted grade appeals
- IB parent-teacher conferences
- RevisionDojo Questionbank
- RevisionDojo IB Grade Calculator
- RevisionDojo resources for parents
