Nuclear deterrence factors into conflict theory by explaining how the threat of unacceptable retaliation can prevent direct attack while permitting lower-level conflict. For SL and HL Global Politics, it belongs within the Peace and Conflict thematic study and links to power, sovereignty and interdependence.
How deterrence works
Deterrence requires an actor to possess nuclear weapons, communicate willingness to use them and make retaliation credible. A secure second-strike capability allows a state to retaliate after absorbing an attack. When opponents both have this capacity, the expected cost creates mutually assured destruction and discourages a first strike.
Realism treats deterrence as material power and rational cost calculation. After Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, its nuclear warnings contributed to NATO avoiding direct combat, while members continued supplying Ukraine.
| Effect on conflict | Mechanism and example |
|---|---|
| Prevents major war | The prospect of catastrophic retaliation discourages direct conflict between nuclear-armed states, illustrated by NATO's restraint after 2022. |
| Produces negative peace | Violence is absent, but hostility remains; the United States and Russia retain nuclear forces. |
| Enables limited conflict | The stability-instability paradox suggests strategic stability may enable lower-level violence, as in the February 2019 India-Pakistan Balakot crisis. |
| Creates insecurity | A security dilemma follows when one state's protection alarms others; North Korean tests prompted closer United States-South Korea-Japan cooperation. |
A common misconception is that deterrence creates genuine peace. It may prevent direct war, but it does not resolve grievances or structural violence, and accidents or miscalculation remain possible. The 2021 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons shows that many actors contest the legitimacy of security based on mass destruction.
Exam technique
In a Paper 2 response, do not merely describe nuclear weapons. For an evaluate or discuss question, weigh prevention of major war against instability, humanitarian consequences and unresolved conflict. Use specific contemporary cases and reach a justified conclusion.