Resource depletion creates political tension by increasing competition over scarce resources and forcing actors to decide who receives access. However, depletion does not automatically cause conflict: unequal distribution, weak governance and contested authority determine whether scarcity becomes a political crisis.
In the HL Environment topic area, resource depletion means natural resources are consumed or extracted faster than they can recover. As supply falls while demand remains high, allocation becomes a question of power.
The mechanism usually develops in stages:
- A resource becomes less available.
- Governments, communities and businesses compete for access.
- Allocation creates winners and losers.
- Disadvantaged groups challenge its fairness or legitimacy.
- Tension may produce protest, migration, interstate disputes or violence.
| Political pathway | Specific example |
|---|---|
| Competition over allocation | During Cape Town's 2017 to 2018 drought, water limits and threatened “Day Zero” intensified disputes among residents, farmers and government. |
| Loss of livelihoods | Canada's 1992 northern cod moratorium affected about 30,000 fishers and processing workers in Newfoundland and Labrador, causing unemployment, protests and criticism of federal management. |
| Interstate tension | Ethiopia began filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in 2020. Egypt argued that reduced Nile flows threatened water security, creating a dispute over sovereignty and regional governance. |
| Displacement and insecurity | Somalia's 2020 to 2023 drought displaced over one million people, pressuring urban services and humanitarian institutions amid armed conflict. |
The common misconception is that scarcity directly causes war. Scarcity is better understood as a threat multiplier: it worsens existing inequalities, grievances and institutional weaknesses. Cooperation, including enforceable water-sharing agreements, can prevent violent escalation.
For an HL Paper 3 response, explain this causal chain and evaluate it through one detailed case study. Link Environment to interdependence, Development and Sustainability, and Peace and Conflict rather than presenting depletion as a single cause.
