The greed vs grievance debate asks whether armed conflict is driven mainly by opportunities for material gain or by perceived injustice. Most conflicts involve both: grievances motivate participation, while access to resources and finance makes sustained violence possible.
The Two Explanations
The debate is associated particularly with Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler's research into civil war. It belongs within the IB thematic study of the nature, practice and study of conflict, but it is an analytical framework rather than prescribed theory.
| Explanation | Core mechanism | Contemporary example |
|---|---|---|
| Greed | Actors rebel when conflict offers economic rewards or is financially feasible. Lootable resources, taxation, smuggling and weak state control can fund armed groups. | After capturing Rubaya in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in April 2024, the M23 armed group gained control over an important coltan-mining area and reportedly collected taxes from mineral production and trade. |
| Grievance | Conflict develops from political exclusion, repression, inequality, discrimination or identity-based injustice. People may support violence when peaceful change appears impossible. | Syria's 2011 uprising followed the arrest and reported torture of schoolchildren in Daraa. State repression of subsequent protests intensified grievances and contributed to armed conflict. |
The categories overlap. In Sudan's conflict beginning in April 2023, competition for political and military power between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces interacted with the Rapid Support Forces' gold networks and long-standing grievances concerning regional marginalization. Economic opportunity therefore helped sustain a conflict shaped by political exclusion and contested legitimacy.
A common misconception is that “greed” simply means individual selfishness. In this framework, it usually means the opportunity and feasibility of rebellion, including whether armed groups can recruit, finance operations and control territory.
Exam Technique
In a Paper 2 response, do not present greed and grievance as mutually exclusive. Define both, apply each to specific actors and dated cases, then evaluate their interaction before reaching a balanced judgment about which factor better explains the outbreak, continuation or intensity of conflict.