The null hypothesis, , states that there is no effect, difference, association, or change in the population. The alternative hypothesis, , states the competing claim that an effect, difference, association, or change exists.
How the Two Hypotheses Work
A hypothesis test begins by treating as the default position. Sample data are then used to calculate a p-value, which measures how likely a result at least as extreme as the observed result would be if were true.
The p-value is compared with the significance level, :
| Comparison | Decision | Contextual conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Reject | There is sufficient evidence supporting . |
For example, suppose a school tests whether two populations have different mean journey times:
If the test gives at the significance level, then . Therefore, reject ; there is sufficient evidence that the population mean journey times differ.
The form of determines whether the test is one-tailed or two-tailed. A claim of “different” uses , while directional claims such as “greater than” or “less than” use or . The equality belongs in , because the null hypothesis defines the reference model.
For a chi-squared test of independence, the hypotheses are usually written in words:
- : the two categorical variables are independent.
- : the two categorical variables are associated.
A common misconception is to say that has been “proved false” or “accepted.” A hypothesis test provides evidence, not proof. If the result is not significant, write “there is insufficient evidence to reject ,” not “accept .”
IB Exam Technique
This is IB Mathematics: Applications and Interpretation SL 4.11 and may appear in GDC-active Paper 1 or Paper 2. State both hypotheses before testing, compare the p-value explicitly with , and finish with a conclusion in context; a calculator result alone does not complete the test.
