Use the observed frequencies in the contingency table to calculate expected frequencies, then run a chi-squared test for independence on your GDC. Compare the resulting p-value with the significance level to decide whether there is evidence of an association between the two categorical variables.
This is SL 4.11: Hypothesis testing and may be examined on either GDC-active paper.
| Step | Required method |
|---|---|
| 1. State hypotheses | : the two variables are independent. : the two variables are not independent, so there is an association. |
| 2. Find expected frequencies | For each cell, use . |
| 3. Check conditions | The data must be frequencies in mutually exclusive categories. In IB SL examination questions, expected frequencies will be greater than . |
| 4. Find degrees of freedom | For rows and columns, . |
| 5. Run the test | Enter the observed matrix and expected matrix into the GDC's -test routine. Record , (df), and the p-value. |
| 6. Conclude | If , reject . If , there is insufficient evidence to reject . |
For example, if a row total is , a column total is , and the grand total is , then
The test statistic measures the overall difference between observed and expected frequencies:
Technology calculates this value, but you must understand what the expected frequencies represent.
Expected frequencies represent the counts predicted by , based on the marginal totals. Large differences between and increase and usually reduce the p-value, making evidence against independence stronger. Keep full GDC precision until the final reported values.
A common misconception is to say “accept ” when . The correct conclusion is that there is insufficient evidence to reject ; this does not prove independence.
Exam technique: State the p-value and significance level explicitly, compare them, and finish with a contextual conclusion about the variables. A numerical result without this comparison and interpretation will lose reasoning marks.
