As an International Baccalaureate (IB) student, you’ve probably asked yourself: How much do predicted grades actually matter? You’re not alone. These mysterious numbers, given before final exams, can determine your university future—offering conditional admission, scholarships, or even early rejections. But just how influential are they? And can you control or change them?
This article reveals the real impact of IB predicted grades, backed by insights from RevisionDojo, school counselors, and former IB graduates. Read on to understand where predictions matter most, when they can hurt or help you, and how to leverage them without letting them define you.
What Are IB Predicted Grades?
Predicted grades are estimated final IB scores that teachers assign before you take your final exams. They’re usually sent to universities in October–November (for early admissions) or January–February for regular UCAS and Common App applications.
These grades are based on:
- Mock exam performance
- Internal Assessments (IAs)
- Class participation and test results
- Extended Essay (EE) and Theory of Knowledge (TOK) drafts
They are not guesses—but they’re not final either. And that’s exactly why they matter so much.
How Are Predicted Grades Used by Universities?
Predicted grades play a crucial role in admission decisions, especially in systems where offers are made before final results are released.
Key uses include:
- Conditional Offers (UK, Canada, Australia): You receive a university offer based on predicted scores—e.g., "Predicted 38 points with 666 at HL"—which becomes conditional upon achieving those numbers.
- Early Decision / Early Action (US): These applications rely on predicted grades as the most recent academic benchmark.
- Scholarships and Honors Programs: Academic awards often require minimum predicted points (e.g., 40+) or subject-specific HL scores.
According to RevisionDojo, over 85% of IB students who receive offers from top schools had strong predicted scores—often 38 or higher.
When Do Predicted Grades Matter the Most?
- UK (UCAS): They’re the basis of every offer you receive before exams.
- Canada: Institutions like UBC and University of Toronto heavily weigh predicted IB grades for early offers.
- Australia: IB grades are translated to an ATAR-equivalent; offers often depend on prediction-based ATARs.
- Singapore & Hong Kong: Early decisions are prediction-driven.
Are Predicted Grades Accurate?
They can be accurate—but they’re still subjective.
How they’re determined:
- Based on mock exam averages, recent IA grades, and teacher impressions.
- Often reviewed in department meetings to ensure consistency.
Why they may be inaccurate:
- Overpredictions (to be “kind” or hopeful)
- Underpredictions (to protect school reputation or due to bias)
- Mock exams may not reflect final readiness
RevisionDojo’s guide shows that while most predictions fall within 1–2 points of final scores, students often overperform (with strong final exam prep) or underperform (due to stress).
Can Predicted Grades Be Changed?
Yes—but with a valid reason.
You may request a predicted grade re-evaluation if:
- You significantly outperform your current mock grade
- You provide evidence of improved performance or IA quality
- There is a clear mismatch between class performance and prediction
Schools typically follow internal review procedures, and IB rules allow updates before the official prediction submission window closes.
RevisionDojo recommends creating a “case portfolio” with IA results, essays, test scores, and reflections to support your appeal.
What Happens if Your Final Grades Don’t Match Predictions?
There are two scenarios:
- You Exceed Your Predictions:
- Great! Universities will accept you (if you met the conditions), and in some cases, scholarship upgrades or advanced placement are possible.
- You Fall Short:
- Risk of offer withdrawal, especially in the UK
- May go through Clearing, appeals, or deferred entry
- For the US, final grades may still influence honors program admission or credit transfer
Strategies to Improve Predicted Grades Before They’re Finalized
- Ace your mocks with dedicated revision plans
- Strengthen your IAs—they carry major internal weight
- Communicate with teachers early, showing commitment and progress
- Use tools like RevisionDojo to find past paper strategies, mark scheme tips, and IA samples.
How Much Do Predicted Grades Affect Scholarships?
In most cases, a predicted score of 38–40+:
- Increases eligibility for merit-based scholarships
- Strengthens scholarship applications to schools in Canada, Australia, and Asia
- Opens doors to honors colleges or early-entry programs
RevisionDojo’s Insights on Predicted Grades
RevisionDojo offers deep analysis on predicted vs final grades. Their takeaways:
- Predictions are powerful—but not perfect
- Most students score within 1–2 points of predictions
- Predicted 40+ scores can elevate your application, but strong essays and IA scores also count
- Their mock exam resources and revision packs are designed to help students hit their target predictions and beyond
Explore more:
When to Focus More on Final Grades Than Predictions
In the following cases, final grades outweigh predictions:
- US regular admissions (Common App)
- Rolling admissions in Germany, Netherlands
- Gap year retakes where universities accept updated scores
- Scholarships post-results
Real-Life Stories: Students Who Defied Predictions
- Maya (India) – Predicted 32, scored 38, accepted into UBC with strong final IA and EE work.
- Lucas (UK) – Predicted 42, scored 38, but secured admission to Exeter through Clearing.
- Sofia (USA) – Predicted 35, improved to 40 using RevisionDojo’s mock exam tools, earned a scholarship at NYU.
FAQs: Truth About IB Predicted Grades
Q: Are predicted grades reported to IB?
No. They're submitted to universities, not to the IB Organization.
Q: Do universities reject good predictions?
Sometimes—if the rest of the application is weak or competition is high.
Q: Can I ask to see my predicted grades?
Yes—your school can share them upon request.
Q: Do predicted grades matter after I get final results?
Mostly no—final grades replace predictions in admissions decisions.
Conclusion: Predictions Are Powerful, But Not Permanent
So, how much do predicted grades actually matter?
A lot—for early admissions, scholarships, and conditional offers. But they’re not set in stone. With preparation, communication, and support, you can influence your predicted scores—and if you fall short, your final exams still give you the power to bounce back.
Use predicted grades as a launchpad, not a finish line.
