How Much Do Predicted Grades Matter in IB? (2026)

Predicted grades feel like a verdict because they arrive before you get the one thing you want most: a chance to prove yourself.

One afternoon, a teacher slides a number across a desk. It looks small. It is not small. In the IB, that number can quietly decide where your application gets read slowly, where it gets read quickly, and where it might not get read at all.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth most IB students only learn later: predicted grades matter a lot in specific systems, and surprisingly little in others. They’re powerful, but not permanent. And if you treat them like a weather report instead of a prophecy, you get your agency back.

What predicted grades are (and what they are not) in IB

In the IB, predicted grades are teacher-generated estimates of the final 1-7 scores you’re likely to achieve in each subject, plus core predictions for TOK/EE where applicable. Schools typically send them to universities during the main application windows (often Oct-Nov for earlier routes, and later for regular cycles).

They are not random guesses. They are usually built from:

• Mock exam performance

• In-class tests and timed essays

• Internal Assessment (IA) progress and teacher-marked drafts

• Consistency over time (a big one)

They are also not the same thing as your final result. Predicted grades are evidence-based forecasts, but forecasts still miss sometimes. If you want the mechanics, use this step-by-step explanation: How to calculate a predicted grade in IB.

Quick checklist: how much do predicted grades matter for you?

Use this quick filter before you spiral.

• Are you applying somewhere that gives conditional offers? If yes, predicted grades matter more.

• Are you applying early (or before final results exist)? If yes, predicted grades matter more.

• Are scholarships tied to academic thresholds? If yes, predicted grades matter more.

• Are you applying where final results arrive before decisions (or where decisions are holistic)? If yes, predicted grades matter less.

• Do you have a clear way to improve evidence before predictions are finalized? If yes, you have leverage.

For a calmer, more detailed reset, read: IB predicted grades don’t define you (here’s what does).

The shocking truth: predicted grades matter most before you’re even “ready”

The reason predicted grades feel unfair is timing. In the IB, the prediction snapshot is often taken when you’re still mid-process: your writing voice is still developing, your math timing still isn’t stable, your chemistry explanations still sound like “I kind of get it.”

Universities don’t love predicted grades because they’re perfect. They love them because they are the best standardized-ish signal available before final exams.

That means predicted grades are highest impact in application systems that must make decisions early.

Where predicted grades matter most

• UK-style conditional offer pathways (predictions drive the offer, finals confirm it)

• Many Canadian and Australian pathways that offer early or conditional routes

• Highly competitive programs where small point differences sort large applicant pools

If you’re specifically worried about early decisions, this breakdown helps: How predicted grades affect early admissions decisions.

Where predicted grades matter less than you think

In parts of the world where decisions arrive later, or where universities lean heavily on transcripts, essays, interviews, and broader context, predicted grades are still relevant, but they’re not the single lever.

Even then, remember: “matter less” doesn’t mean “don’t matter.” In the IB, predicted grades often determine whether your file starts in the “competitive” pile or the “risky” pile.

Are IB predicted grades accurate?

Accurate enough to be useful, imperfect enough to be stressful.

A helpful way to think about predicted grades in IB is that they usually cluster near the final grade, but can drift when any of these happen:

• A student peaks late (common in exam-heavy subjects)

• A student burns out after predictions are submitted

• Mock exams weren’t run under realistic conditions

• Coursework progress misleads either positively or negatively

RevisionDojo summarises historical patterns clearly here: IB predicted vs final grades: how accurate are they?.

If you want a grounded estimate of your likely diploma score based on components, use the free tool: IB Grade Calculator. It’s not magic. It’s just a cleaner mirror than anxiety.

Can you change predicted grades in IB?

Sometimes yes, and the way you approach it matters.

The best argument in the IB is never emotion. It’s evidence. Teachers usually respond to measurable improvement: a stronger timed response, a cleaner lab conclusion, a better Paper 2 outline, fewer method errors.

A practical approach:

• Ask what evidence your teacher used (mock, tests, IA progress, consistency)

• Ask what specific performance would justify a change (one grade higher, what does that look like?)

• Offer new evidence: a timed paper section, an improved IA draft, a scored mock retake

If you’re already past the point of change, don’t waste weeks negotiating with the past. Use the recovery playbook here: IB predicted grades missed? What to do next.

The part nobody tells you: predicted grades are also a training signal

In the IB, predicted grades are not only for universities. They’re also the clearest indicator of what your teachers believe you can produce under time pressure.

So treat the prediction like a diagnostic report.

Turn a disappointing prediction into a simple feedback loop

This is where RevisionDojo becomes more than motivation.

• Use RevisionDojo Questionbank to target exactly what’s weak (topic-by-topic), not what feels familiar.

• Use Study Notes to rebuild the missing concept quickly, then switch back to questions.

• Use Flashcards for daily recall so you stop “re-learning” the same content.

• Use AI Chat when you’re stuck on why the mark scheme rewards a point.

• Use Grading tools for criterion-aware feedback on written work.

• Use Predicted Papers and Mock Exams for realistic rehearsal.

• Use the Coursework Library when you need to see what strong IA/EE/TOK work actually looks like.

• Use Tutors when you need a human to diagnose patterns fast.

Start here if you want the ecosystem overview: RevisionDojo app: the smarter way to prep for IB exams.

And if your mocks are the main driver of predictions, use this guide to study with less chaos: How to study for IB mocks (without burning out).

How to use predicted papers without fooling yourself

Many IB students confuse two ideas:

• “Predicted grades” (teacher estimates for university)

• “Predicted papers” (practice exams designed to simulate likely exam patterns)

Predicted papers help because they force performance: timing, stamina, coverage, decision-making. They don’t help if you treat them like secret leaked knowledge.

To use them well, read: IB predicted vs specimen papers: what they mean and then practice with IB Predicted Papers by IB examiners (free).

Conclusion: predicted grades matter, but they’re not the finish line

Predicted grades matter in the IB because they sit at the intersection of timing and opportunity. They can unlock offers, shape scholarship consideration, and change how your application is read.

But predicted grades are still a snapshot. Your final outcome is built by what you do after the snapshot.

If you want one next step that reduces uncertainty, run your numbers through the IB Grade Calculator, then build a two-week loop inside RevisionDojo: Study Notes for clarity, Flashcards for recall, Questionbank for application, AI Chat and Grading tools for feedback, and Predicted Papers plus Mock Exams for realism. That’s how IB students turn a prediction into progress, and progress into results.