What Are Predicted Grades in the IB?
Predicted grades in the International Baccalaureate (IB) are teacher-generated estimates of what a student is likely to score in their final IB exams. These predictions:
- Reflect academic performance, consistency, and potential
- Are used primarily for university admissions
- Include all six subject grades (1–7), plus the core component points from TOK and the Extended Essay
They are not simply guesses—they're based on evidence and criteria aligned with the IB assessment system.
When Are Predicted Grades Typically Given in the IB?
The timeline for predicted grades varies slightly by school, but generally:
- DP1 (First Year): Informal predictions may be shared in end-of-year reports
- DP2 (Second Year): Official predicted grades are finalized between September and October
This timing aligns with:
- UCAS (UK) deadlines in mid-October (Oxbridge/Medicine) and late January
- U.S. Early Decision rounds (November)
- Other international deadlines such as in Canada, Australia, and Europe
Teachers must submit predicted grades to school coordinators, who then relay them to universities or include them in reference letters.
How Teachers Predict IB Grades Accurately
IB teachers use a combination of the following:
- Internal Assessments (IAs): A significant portion of the final grade
- Class performance: Consistency in tests, quizzes, presentations
- Mock exam results: Timed assessments that mimic IB exam conditions
- Engagement and progression: Overall academic growth and attitude
They also consult:
- Grade descriptors from the IB
- Past trends from previous students
- Departmental meetings to ensure standardization and fairness
This is why your effort throughout the program—not just near exams—affects your predicted grades.
How Are Predicted Grades Used in University Applications?
Universities around the world, including those using UCAS, Common App, or direct applications, rely on IB predicted grades to:
- Issue conditional offers (e.g., "You must score 38 points including 6 in HL Biology")
- Assess academic preparedness
- Evaluate competitiveness, especially in selective programs
In countries like the UK, predicted grades are central to the admissions process—many offers are based solely on them.
In the U.S., they supplement transcripts and SAT/ACT scores (if required), showing academic trend and challenge level.
Can Predicted Grades Change During the IB Programme?
Yes, predicted grades can change before final submission. For example:
- Improved performance in class or assessments may lead to an upgraded prediction
- Conversely, a drop in consistency might lead to a lower prediction
- Some schools allow students to appeal if they feel their prediction is unfair, usually with evidence
However, once sent to universities, changes cannot usually be made unless in exceptional circumstances.
How to Improve Your Predicted Grades
If you're aiming higher, take these steps:
- Stay consistent in all assessments—not just big exams
- Complete IAs early and submit strong drafts for teacher feedback
- Participate in class and show academic interest
- Ask teachers politely and respectfully how you can improve—not to change your score
The best way to raise a prediction is to prove you deserve it.
Myths and Misconceptions About Predicted Grades
Here are some common misunderstandings:
- “Teachers can’t change predicted grades” – False. They can, before the school submission deadline.
- “All teachers give overly generous predictions” – Not true. Many aim to be realistic and moderate.
- “Predicted grades determine your final grade” – No. Your final score is determined solely by IB examiners.
Predicted grades matter, but they don’t lock you into an academic fate.
Impact of Predicted Grades on Final Results and Motivation
Some students lose motivation after receiving predicted grades, especially if they're lower than expected. But that’s a mistake.
- A lower prediction can be beaten in the final exam
- A high prediction doesn’t guarantee performance—consistency is key
- Universities may withdraw offers if you miss your conditional grade
So keep working. A strong final performance can prove your potential and open future opportunities, including reconsideration, transfers, or scholarships.
Conclusion: Understanding and Using Predicted Grades Strategically
Predicted grades in the IB are a valuable academic checkpoint. They reflect your current performance and help universities evaluate your potential. Knowing when they’re calculated and how they’re formed gives you the power to:
- Track your progress
- Communicate effectively with teachers
- Set clear goals for the months leading up to your final exams
With preparation and persistence, your predicted grades can be a launchpad—not a limitation.
FAQs
Can I ask my teacher to raise my predicted grade?
You can request a conversation and ask what you need to improve, but teachers won’t raise grades without evidence of better performance.
Are predicted grades binding for teachers?
No, they can be changed internally before submission, but once submitted to universities, they usually remain fixed.
What if my actual IB grades are better?
You can share final scores with universities. Some may still offer admission, especially in deferred entry or clearing situations.
Can predicted grades impact my graduation?
No. Predicted grades affect university admissions, not your actual IB diploma or graduation eligibility.
Do IB predicted grades include TOK and EE points?
Yes. Teachers predict your score out of 3 for core points, which combine TOK and EE performance.
How many students meet or exceed their predicted grades?
Studies show about 50–60% of students meet or slightly exceed their predicted scores, depending on school and subject.
