If you're applying to university with the International Baccalaureate (IB), your predicted grades can play a major role in the admissions process—especially for early or conditional offers. But can you be rejected based on predicted grades alone?
The short answer is: yes, you can. However, it's more nuanced than it sounds. This article explains when predicted grades matter most, how they’re used by universities, and what you can do if yours fall short.
Why Do Predicted Grades Matter?
- For most universities—especially in the UK, Canada, and parts of Europe—admissions offers are made before final IB results are released.
- That means predicted grades serve as a proxy for your final performance.
- Universities use them to determine whether you’re likely to meet their entry requirements.
When Can Predicted Grades Lead to a Rejection?
1. You Don’t Meet the Minimum Entry Requirements
- If a course requires 38 points with 6s in HL subjects, and your prediction is 34 with 5s, you may be automatically filtered out.
2. You Fall Below the Subject-Level Thresholds
- Some degrees (e.g., Engineering, Medicine, Law) require specific HL subject grades.
- A 4 in HL Chemistry when 6 is required can lead to rejection—even with a strong total score.
3. You Apply to Competitive Programs
- Top universities (e.g., Oxford, Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Imperial) receive thousands of applications with predicted 40+ points.
- Falling even 1–2 points short may result in rejection during the first review round.
