The number of cars arriving at a junction in a particular town in any given minute between and is historically known to follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of cars per minute.
A new road is built near the town. It is claimed that the new road has decreased the number of cars arriving at the junction.
To test the claim, the number of cars, , arriving at the junction between and on a particular day will be recorded. The test will have the following hypotheses:
the mean number of cars arriving at the junction has not changed,
the mean number of cars arriving at the junction has decreased.
The alternative hypothesis will be accepted if .
Assuming the null hypothesis to be true, state the distribution of .
A1
Note: Both distribution and mean must be seen for A1 to be awarded.
[1 mark]
Find the probability of a Type I error.
(M1)
A1
[2 marks]
Find the probability of a Type II error, if the number of cars now follows a Poissondistribution with a mean of cars per minute.
(mean number of cars =) (A1)
(M1)
Note: Award M1 for usingto evaluate a probability.
OR (M1)
A1
[4 marks]