What Are IB Predicted Grades?
IB predicted grades are teacher-generated estimates of the final scores a student is likely to achieve in each subject. They are usually submitted by November (for May session candidates) and play a critical role in university admissions, especially for students applying before results are released.
Predicted grades are based on:
- Past academic performance
- Internal assessments (IAs)
- Mock exam results
- Teacher observation and discretion
Universities use them to make conditional offers, so their accuracy is high-stakes.
How Are Final Grades Determined in the IB?
IB final grades are calculated using a mix of components:
- Externally assessed exams (usually 70–80% of the grade)
- Internal Assessments (IAs) graded by teachers and moderated by IB
- Coursework components such as the Extended Essay and TOK
- Marks are standardized through global moderation and statistical adjustment
Final results are released in early July for May session candidates and January for November session students.
Do Predicted Grades Match Final Grades? Historical Accuracy
Over the past decade, research shows that IB predicted grades are often optimistic—but not wildly inaccurate.
📊 Key Stats:
- Around 50–60% of predicted grades match final grades
- Approximately 30–35% are overpredicted
- 5–10% are underpredicted (students outperform predictions)
These trends vary across subjects, schools, and regions. Some subjects—like IB English or History—have more subjective components, making them harder to predict accurately compared to Math or Chemistry.
Underprediction vs Overprediction: What’s More Common?
The IB tends to overpredict rather than underpredict. This is often due to:
- Teacher optimism or bias
- Pressure to help students secure university offers
- Students showing strong improvement late in the course
However, underprediction can happen in cases of:
- Underestimated student growth
- Personal struggles earlier in the program
- Students who peak during final exams
In high-achieving schools, overprediction is more common, whereas underprediction may occur in schools with less experience in IB forecasting.
Are HL and SL Subjects Predicted Differently?
Yes. Higher Level (HL) subjects are often harder to predict because they:
- Have more advanced content
- Require more independent thinking
- Count more heavily in university applications
Some trends show that predictions in SL subjects are more accurate due to narrower scopes and more standardized assessment formats.
2020 and 2021: The Pandemic Effect on Predictions
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted traditional exams, making predicted grades the basis for final grades in 2020 and partially in 2021.
This led to:
- Widespread grade inflation in 2020
- Significant backlash and recalibrations in 2021
- The IB adjusting its grade calculation models to improve fairness
These years revealed the limitations of prediction-based assessments, especially in terms of equity and standardization.
Why Predicted Grades May Differ from Final Grades
There are many reasons predicted grades may not align with final grades:
Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Predicted Grades
- Student Motivation
- Some students peak during final revision and outperform their predictions
- Teacher Bias
- Optimism or familiarity with the student may unintentionally influence predicted grades
- Exam-Day Performance
- Factors like nerves, illness, or fatigue can impact actual results
- Internal Moderation
- Internal Assessments (IAs) might be downgraded during external moderation by IB examiners
- Subject Variability
- Some subjects (e.g., Literature or Visual Arts) are more subjective and harder to predict accurately
University Admissions: How Much Do Predicted Grades Matter?
Universities in the UK, Canada, and parts of Europe use predicted grades to issue conditional offers. In most cases:
- Offers are made before final grades are released
- Universities may withdraw offers if final scores don’t meet the conditions
- Some institutions review final performance holistically, especially if there's a significant mismatch
US universities tend to emphasize transcripts, essays, and standardized tests more than predicted grades—but they still play a role in early decision processes.
How to Handle a Discrepancy Between Predicted and Final Grades
If your final grades are lower than predicted, here’s what to do:
- Contact your university immediately—some may still honor your offer or offer alternatives
- Request a remark or grade review if you suspect an error
- Appeal through your IB coordinator if there are valid reasons (illness, misgrading, etc.)
If your final grades are higher than predicted, you may:
- Apply through UCAS Clearing for better options
- Update universities about your final results, especially if applying abroad
Tips for Students and Teachers to Improve Prediction Accuracy
🎓 For Students:
- Perform consistently throughout the year
- Take mock exams and IAs seriously
- Communicate goals and progress to teachers
- Ask for feedback to understand strengths and gaps
🧑🏫 For Teachers:
- Use clear, evidence-based methods
- Avoid inflating grades under pressure
- Compare historical prediction vs final data
- Collaborate with subject peers for standardization
FAQs About IB Predicted and Final Grades
Q1: Are IB predicted grades usually higher than final grades?
A: Yes, in most cases. Studies show about 30–35% of grades are overpredicted.
Q2: Can predicted grades be changed after submission?
A: No, once submitted to the IB and universities, they’re locked in.
Q3: Do predicted grades matter for university in the US?
A: Less than in the UK—but they still matter for early admissions and counselor evaluations.
Q4: What’s the best way to ensure accurate predictions?
A: Communicate with teachers, perform well on IAs and mocks, and show consistent effort.
Q5: Can I appeal if my predicted grade was much higher than my final grade?
A: You can request a remark or discuss extenuating circumstances with your school and universities.
Q6: Do universities ever adjust offers after final grades are lower?
A: Sometimes. Especially if the shortfall is minor or if there are valid personal reasons.
