If you’re an IB student applying to universities or scholarships, your predicted grades play a crucial role. These grades provide an estimate of your final IB Diploma scores and help institutions assess your potential before official results are released. But how are these predicted grades actually calculated? Let’s break it down.
What Are Predicted Grades in IB?
Predicted grades are the scores your teachers forecast you will achieve in each IB subject and core component (Extended Essay and Theory of Knowledge). They are submitted to the IB and used in university applications, early offers, and sometimes scholarships.
How Teachers Calculate Predicted Grades
There is no single IB-mandated method, but schools and teachers follow common practices based on IB expectations:
1. Performance in Class
Teachers consider your performance on:
- Past tests, quizzes, and assignments
- Mock exams and past papers
- Class participation and consistency over time
2. Internal Assessment (IA) Progress
IA drafts and final submissions provide insight into your depth of understanding, research, and analytical skills. A strong IA can positively influence a predicted grade.
3. School-Based Exams
Many schools hold mock exams or trial exams (often using past IB papers) to assess readiness and predict performance under exam conditions.
4. Trends in Performance
Teachers look at your academic trajectory:
- Are your grades improving steadily?
- Are you consistent, or do results fluctuate?
This helps refine the prediction beyond a single data point.
5. Comparisons to IB Grade Boundaries
Teachers use historical IB grade boundaries and past student performance to align your predicted grade with IB standards. For example, if your mock exam score falls within a range that historically earned a 6, your predicted grade may reflect that.
6. Professional Judgement
Ultimately, your teacher’s professional judgement—based on experience with IB standards, past students, and their knowledge of your work—plays a major role in determining your predicted grade.
Core Component Predicted Grades
- Extended Essay (EE): Predicted based on drafts, depth of research, critical analysis, and adherence to the criteria.
- Theory of Knowledge (TOK): Predicted from presentation and essay drafts, as well as class discussions and tasks.
Do Predicted Grades Have to Match Final Grades?
No. Predicted grades are best estimates—they can be higher or lower than final grades. Universities understand this and consider them as part of a broader application.
Can Predicted Grades Be Challenged?
Generally, predicted grades are final once submitted. However, if you feel a grade does not reflect your performance, it’s worth having a respectful conversation with your teacher before submission deadlines.
Final Thoughts
Predicted grades are calculated using a combination of mock exams, IA performance, classwork, trends, and professional judgement. While they are important, remember they are just predictions—not guarantees. Focus on consistent effort and seek feedback to ensure your actual results match or exceed your predictions.
For templates, mock exam trackers, and IA planning resources to help you improve your predicted grades, visit RevisionDojo, where IB experts provide tools to help you reach your target scores.
