IB History Political Instability in China Notes

The Fall of the Qing Dynasty and the Warlord Era

1. The Qing Dynasty collapsed in the 1911 Revolution, ending over 2000 years of imperial rule. Sun Yat-sen founded the Republic of China.
2. Military strongman Yuan Shikai seized power from Sun, attempted to make himself Emperor, and died in 1916. His death removed the last figure capable of holding China together.
3. China fractured into regions controlled by rival warlords. Between 1916 and 1928, there were 7 major warlord groups in southern China and 3 in the north, plus smaller factions.
4. Warlords maintained private armies, imposed taxes, and fought for territory. No central authority existed, and foreign powers including Japan, Britain, and the USA exploited the chaos to expand influence.
5. Japan preferred a weak, divided China that could not challenge Japanese interests. A unified China under nationalist leadership would threaten Japan's economic and territorial ambitions.

Early Japanese Ambitions in China

1. In 1915, Japan issued the Twenty-One Demands to China, seeking extensive economic and political privileges in Shandong, Manchuria, and Inner Mongolia. China was forced to accept most demands under threat of war.
2. The demands caused outrage across China and fuelled the growth of Chinese nationalism directed against Japan. They also alarmed Western powers who saw Japan as overreaching.
3. The May Fourth Movement (1919) erupted after the Treaty of Versailles transferred German concessions in Shandong to Japan rather than returning them to China. Over 3,000 students protested in Beijing.
4. May Fourth became a broader cultural and political awakening, boosting support for both the KMT and the newly-formed CCP. It marked the birth of modern Chinese anti-imperialist nationalism.

The Rise of the Kuomintang (KMT)

1. Sun Yat-sen reorganised the KMT with Soviet assistance in the early 1920s, modelling its structure on the Communist Party. His ideology rested on the Three Principles of the People: nationalism, democracy, and livelihood.
2. The First United Front (1923-1927) allied the KMT and CCP against the warlords. Soviet advisers trained KMT officers at the Whampoa Military Academy, commanded by Chiang Kai-shek.
3. After Sun's death in March 1925, Chiang Kai-shek emerged as leader. He launched the Northern Expedition (1926-1928) to unify China, deploying over 1 million troops.

1. In April 1927, Chiang turned on his communist allies in the Shanghai Massacre, killing thousands of CCP members and trade unionists. This ended the First United Front.
2. By 1928, the KMT had nominally unified China under a national government in Nanjing. However, many warlords simply pledged loyalty while retaining real power in their regions.
3. The Northern Expedition destroyed railways, bridges, and infrastructure. A famine in northwest China killed between 3 and 6 million people. The campaign also isolated China from the Soviet Union by attacking the CCP.

The Jinan Incident and Chinese Boycotts

1. In May 1928, during the Northern Expedition, Japanese and KMT troops clashed at Jinan (Shandong province). Japan had sent 5,000 troops to protect Japanese residents and interests.
2. The Jinan Incident resulted in approximately 2,000 Chinese civilian casualties. Japan occupied the city for over a year, inflaming anti-Japanese sentiment across China.
3. Chinese citizens responded with boycotts of Japanese goods throughout the late 1920s and 1930s. These boycotts reduced Japanese exports to China by as much as 40% in some periods.
4. The KMT launched a "rights recovery" movement demanding the return of foreign concessions, tariff autonomy, and an end to extraterritoriality. This directly threatened Japan's treaty rights in China.

Manchuria and Zhang Zuolin

1. Manchuria was rich in coal, iron ore, and soybeans, vital resources that Japan, which imported 80% of its oil and 90% of its iron, desperately needed.
2. Warlord Zhang Zuolin declared Manchuria independent from China in 1922. He allowed Japan to develop railways, mills, and mines in exchange for support against rival warlords.
3. Japan's Kwantung Army, stationed in the Liaodong Peninsula, grew frustrated with Zhang. Many officers were members of the radical Kodoha faction who advocated a Showa Restoration.
4. In June 1928, Kwantung Army officers assassinated Zhang Zuolin by bombing his train near Mukden. They hoped to destabilise Manchuria and justify a Japanese takeover.
5. The plan backfired. Zhang's son Zhang Xueliang allied with the KMT, bringing Manchuria back into a newly unified China under Chiang Kai-shek. This directly threatened Japan's economic interests.
6. The Japanese civilian government was unable to punish the insubordinate officers, revealing the military's growing independence from civilian control.

Chinese Unification and Its Impact on Japan

1. A unified China under Chiang Kai-shek posed multiple threats to Japan: China might demand return of the Shantung Peninsula and challenge Japan's railway rights in Manchuria.
2. Japan shifted from Shidehara Diplomacy (conciliatory, working within international frameworks) to the Positive Policy (1927), treating Manchuria as a special case separate from the rest of China.
3. The Positive Policy meant Japan no longer felt bound by international agreements regarding Manchuria. Foreign states were seen as trying to keep Japan weak and unable to fulfil its mission of leading Asia.
4. The Kwantung Army increasingly acted independently. The government decided to replace the Kwantung Army's leadership to bring it under control.

Why Unification Threatened Japan

1. A united China could build a modern military and demand revision of the "unequal treaties" that gave Japan railway rights, port access, and economic privileges in Manchuria.
2. Rising Chinese nationalism meant growing public pressure on the KMT to confront Japan. Anti-Japanese demonstrations and boycotts became routine in major Chinese cities.
3. Japan's South Manchuria Railway (SMR) and its associated industries employed over 80,000 Japanese workers and represented billions of yen in investment. A hostile unified China could seize these assets.
4. The KMT began building a rival railway network in Manchuria to compete with the SMR, directly undermining Japan's economic dominance in the region.
5. Hours before the new general took charge, the Kwantung Army staged the Manchurian Incident (18 September 1931), bombing the South Manchuria Railway near Mukden and blaming China.
6. Within 5 months, the army conquered all of Manchuria without government approval. It became the puppet state Manchukuo (1932). PM Wakatsuki's cabinet was powerless to stop it.

The Chinese Communist Party and Ongoing Instability

1. The CCP was founded in 1921 and initially allied with the KMT. After the Shanghai Massacre (1927), the CCP retreated to rural areas and developed a peasant-based revolution strategy under Mao Zedong.
2. Communism appealed to millions of unemployed urban workers, though actual party membership remained small. Under the Peace Preservation Law (1925), over 1000 communists and socialists were arrested in 1928 in Japan alone.
3. The CCP survived KMT encirclement campaigns. The Long March (1934-1935) preserved the party leadership and became a founding myth of communist resilience.
4. The Soviet Union bordered Korea (a Japanese colony) and Manchuria. Japan's military saw communism as a major ideological and military threat, using it to justify expansion and suppression of dissent.
5. The CCP's survival created ongoing instability that weakened China's ability to resist Japanese expansion, while also giving Japan a pretext to intervene as a barrier against communism in Asia.

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