WW1 Europe: Causes of War Notes

Key Questions

1. What were the long term and short term causes of World War One in Europe?
2. How can these be categorized into economic, political, ideological, and territorial causes?

Long Term Causes

1. Militarism

The Belief in Deterrence and the Risk of Pre-emption

1. By the early 20th century, European powers had built the largest armies in history.
2. Many statesmen (though not always generals) believed that such massive forces would prevent war through deterrence.
3. The logic of deterrence: a larger military would discourage enemy aggression.
4. However, deterrence failed because:
   1. Armies were still growing, creating fear of being overtaken by rivals.
   2. This fostered a “pre-emptive war” mentality: if your enemy’s army was growing faster, you might feel pressured to strike first before the gap widened.
   3. This dynamic created a dangerous incentive to “use your army before you lose it.”

Size of Armies and Conscription Policies

1. In 1914, Europe had around 200 army divisions, including reserves.
2. Armies were filled via compulsory military service (conscription):
   1. Most European countries required 2–6 years of military service.
   2. Britain was the exception, relying on volunteers until introducing conscription in 1916.
   3. France introduced the Three Year Law (1913), extending conscription from 2 to 3 years.
3. Russia had the largest army in the world:
   1. 1.3 million men in its standing army.
   2. Theoretically could call up 5 million more reservists.

The Illusion of Russian Military Power

1. Despite impressive numbers, Russia’s military power was misleading:
   1. Poor infrastructure, vast distances, and inefficient organization limited effectiveness.
   2. In reality, Russia could only reliably mobilize about 20% of its able-bodied conscripts.
2. This discrepancy created a double-edged sword:
   1. Rival states, unaware of Russia’s internal weaknesses, saw her as an intimidating military giant.
   2. Russian generals, aware of their logistical problems, believed that they had to mobilize before any enemy could, to avoid being outmaneuvered.
3. This fear of delay contributed directly to the mobilization crisis in July 1914.

Technological Developments in Warfare

1. The early 20th century saw massive growth in the lethality and scale of weaponry due to industrialization.
2. Artillery:
   1. Armament manufacturers like Krupp (Germany) and Skoda (Austria-Hungary) produced heavy artillery capable of firing 1-ton explosive shells up to 10 miles (16 km).
3. Machine Guns:
   1. Had a theoretical rate of fire of 400–600 rounds per minute.
   2. Each gun was effectively the firepower equivalent of 80 rifles.
4. These technological developments made warfare more mechanized, destructive, and less reliant on traditional tactics.

The Anglo-German Naval Race

1. One of the clearest examples of militarism before WWI.
2. In 1906, Britain launched the HMS Dreadnought:
   1. A revolutionary battleship design that rendered all previous battleships obsolete.
3. To keep up, all navies had to build Dreadnought-class ships after 1906.
4. Germany, under the Second Naval Law (1900), aimed to challenge Britain’s naval supremacy.
   1. Sparked a competitive arms race between the two powers.
5. Between 1900 and 1914, the combined size of the British and German navies increased by 197%.
   1. This created enormous suspicion and anxiety on both sides.

The Broader Effects of Militarism

1. Large and growing militaries did not directly cause WWI, but they contributed significantly to:
   1. Suspicion and fear between states.
   2. The pressure to mobilize quickly and act decisively.
2. When combined with:
   1. Economic rivalries,
   2. Imperial tensions, and
   3. Rising nationalism
3. Militarism amplified the likelihood of a major and highly destructive war.

2. Industrialization

1. By 1900, some historians argued that economic power directly translated into military strength.
2. Others suggest that the definition of a Great Power was more complex, involving more than just industrial output.
3. What is not disputed is the massive growth in industrial production during the second half of the 19th century.
4. The Industrial Revolution, which began in England, had by 1870 spread throughout Europe and the United States.
5. By 1914, Europe was significantly more industrialized than in 1880.

Industrialization and the Nature of War

1. Industrialization did not directly cause war, but it had important consequences that made conflict more likely:
   1. It laid the foundations for "total war", where entire societies and economies were mobilized for conflict.
   2. It enabled mass production of weapons, ammunition, and other military resources.

Economic Rivalries and Disparities

1. Industrial growth was uneven among powers, creating tension:
   1. USA: Iron and steel output increased by 242% (1890–1913).
   2. Germany: Steel production grew by 329% in the same period.
   3. Britain: Saw a decline in steel output, causing concern over Germany’s rapid industrial rise.
   4. France: Trailed behind all major powers except Austria-Hungary.
2. These disparities led to economic competition, feeding into diplomatic rivalries and political tension.

Need for Raw Materials and Colonial Competition

1. Industrial economies required constant supplies of raw materials and expanding markets.
2. This demand created a neo-mercantilist mindset, encouraging nations to secure colonies.
3. The Scramble for Africa had largely exhausted available colonial territories by 1900.
4. With few new lands to claim, powers began to compete over existing colonies, increasing the risk of confrontation.

Industrialization and Naval Buildup

1. The expansion of trade led to greater demand for naval power to protect economic interests:
   1. By 1913, Germany’s exports matched Britain's, showing a shift in economic dominance.
   2. In the U.S. market, Germany outsold Britain significantly.
2. To defend and expand this trade, Germany sought to build a modern, powerful navy, which:
   1. Fueled the Anglo-German naval arms race.
   2. Added to militaristic and imperial tensions.

Industrial Capacity and War Production

1. Once WWI began, the powers were able to rapidly mobilize their industrial capacities for warfare:
   1. France (1914): Produced 200,000 artillery shells per day.
   2. Russia (1916): Manufactured 4.5 million artillery shells, a tenfold increase from the previous year.
2. Industrial output thus sustained the scale and intensity of modern war.

Link Between Economic and Military Rivalry

1. Economic competition naturally fed into military rivalry:
   1. Industrialization gave countries both the means and the motivation to expand militarily.
   2. The race for resources, markets, and industrial dominance was closely tied to national security and geopolitical standing.
2. This intensified strategic calculations, making major war more likely and more devastating.

3. Alliance System

1. Europe in 1914 was divided into two rival alliance blocs
2. These alliances were reinforced by numerous secondary treaties, both public and secret, extending influence globally.

Bismarck’s Strategy of Deterrence (1871–1890)

1. Following German unification (1871), Chancellor Bismarck aimed to prevent war through strategic alliances:
   1. Dual Alliance (1879): Germany and Austria-Hungary pledged mutual support in case of conflict with two or more powers.
   2. Triple Alliance: Italy joined in 1882, creating a three-way commitment.
   3. Reinsurance Treaty (1887) with Russia ensured neutrality if either was attacked.
2. Bismarck’s network was crafted to isolate France strategically and maintain peace via balance.

Collapse and Realignment

1. After Bismarck’s dismissal (1890), Germany under new leadership chose not to renew the Reinsurance Treaty, isolating Russia.
2. In response, France cultivated ties with Russia:
   1. By 1894, the Franco–Russian Alliance was formed, with mutual defense commitments:
      1. Each would support the other if attacked by Germany or its allies.