IB Environmental systems and societies 7.2E Global Economy and Fossil Fuels Notes

Fossil Fuel Depletion: What Speeds It Up and Slows It Down

1. Fossil fuels supply over 80% of global energy but are finite resources.
2. How fast they run down depends on consumption, new discoveries, technology, the shift to alternatives, and politics.

Rate of Consumption

1. Global demand is rising with population growth and industrialisation.
2. Fast-growing economies like China and India rely heavily on coal and oil, speeding depletion.
3. Peak oil theory says production will eventually reach a maximum and then decline, though the timing keeps being pushed back.

New Discoveries

1. Better exploration keeps finding new reserves, such as in Guyana, the Arctic, and deep-sea fields.
2. Unconventional sources like shale gas and oil sands extend how long supplies last.

Technology

1. Enhanced oil recovery and fracking unlock reserves that were once too costly to extract.
2. Carbon capture and storage may let some fossil fuel use continue with lower emissions.

The Shift to Renewables and Nuclear

1. Growth in solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear cuts demand for fossil fuels.
2. Some countries, such as Norway and Germany, are phasing out fossil fuels faster than others.
3. Better storage, such as batteries and hydrogen, makes renewables more reliable.

Economics and Politics

1. Subsidies, geopolitics, and oil prices shape how much is extracted and used.
2. Climate agreements like the Paris Agreement push countries to reduce fossil fuel use.

Estimated Depletion Timelines

Based on current consumption and known reserves, rough estimates are: