3.7 Supply side policies Questionbank

CASE STUDY: Economic Developments and Challenges in Azerbaijan

1. Azerbaijan, situated at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, has experienced significant economic reforms over the past decade. Historically reliant on hydrocarbons-mainly oil and natural gas—for export revenues, the country has sought to diversify its production base through agriculture, tourism, and technology sectors. In 2019, oil and gas accounted for about 85% of Azerbaijan's total exports, providing substantial government revenue but leaving the country vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations.

2. In recent years, policymakers have introduced multiple initiatives to modernize infrastructure and reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. Between 2019 and 2022, the government invested over US$3 billion in roads, railways, and energy transmission lines, aiming to expand the country's capacity to produce and transport goods. According to the State Statistical Committee, Azerbaijan's real GDP grew by 2.2% in 2020 and rebounded to 4.6% in 2022, partly due to a recovery in global oil prices. However, structural unemployment persists, especially in rural areas, where older agricultural practices lag behind modern production techniques.

3. Inflation, driven by rising global commodity costs, reached 8.4% in 2022, up from 2.6% in 2019. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan responded with conservative monetary policies that have stabilized the exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat. Meanwhile, the government introduced tariffs on certain imported agricultural goods in 2021, aiming to protect local farmers from competition and stimulate domestic production. Critics argue that these tariffs lead to higher prices for consumers, while supporters believe they create incentives for farmers to modernize and invest in capital-intensive farming techniques.

4. Foreign direct investment (FDI) centered on the energy sector remains strong, although officials are eager to attract in manufacturing and services. Improvements in transport connectivity-facilitated by ongoing infrastructure projects-have encouraged discussions about further liberalizing trade regulations to boost exports of textiles, food products, and tech services. Yet logistical barriers at border checkpoints persist, contributing to delays and raising costs for exporters looking to access regional markets.

5. Socially, Azerbaijan has implemented targeted measures to address income inequality, including subsidies for utilities and food staples. Observers note that the impact of these subsidies can be uneven; while they help low-income households cope with rising prices, they can also create fiscal pressure if oil revenues decline. The government has recently introduced pilot programs that tie subsidies to specific income thresholds, with the objective of reducing misuse of public funds.

6. Despite ambitious diversification plans, the oil sector continues to dominate. Economic analysts warn that reliance on hydrocarbons could impede sustainable growth, especially if global oil prices weaken or external demand slows. As part of its long-term development strategy, the government is promoting investment in green energy, incentivizing solar and wind power projects in the hope of creating new export opportunities for electricity.

7. Nonetheless, concerns about structural unemployment remain. Skill mismatches persist between job seekers and the needs of modern industries, particularly in the technology sector. Rural-urban migration has become more common, pressuring housing and public services in Baku, while leaving some villages with labor shortages. Recognizing these challenges, the Ministry of Education has partnered with private companies to revamp vocational education programs, aiming to align training with rapidly evolving market demands.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Azerbaijan (2019-2022)

Table 2: Trade and Social Indicators

QUESTIONS

CASE STUDY: Economic Developments and Challenges in Azerbaijan

1. Azerbaijan, situated at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, has experienced significant economic reforms over the past decade. Historically reliant on hydrocarbons-mainly oil and natural gas—for export revenues, the country has sought to diversify its production base through agriculture, tourism, and technology sectors. In 2019, oil and gas accounted for about 85% of Azerbaijan's total exports, providing substantial government revenue but leaving the country vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations.

2. In recent years, policymakers have introduced multiple initiatives to modernize infrastructure and reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. Between 2019 and 2022, the government invested over US$3 billion in roads, railways, and energy transmission lines, aiming to expand the country's capacity to produce and transport goods. According to the State Statistical Committee, Azerbaijan's real GDP grew by 2.2% in 2020 and rebounded to 4.6% in 2022, partly due to a recovery in global oil prices. However, structural unemployment persists, especially in rural areas, where older agricultural practices lag behind modern production techniques.

3. Inflation, driven by rising global commodity costs, reached 8.4% in 2022, up from 2.6% in 2019. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan responded with conservative monetary policies that have stabilized the exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat. Meanwhile, the government introduced tariffs on certain imported agricultural goods in 2021, aiming to protect local farmers from competition and stimulate domestic production. Critics argue that these tariffs lead to higher prices for consumers, while supporters believe they create incentives for farmers to modernize and invest in capital-intensive farming techniques.

4. Foreign direct investment (FDI) centered on the energy sector remains strong, although officials are eager to attract in manufacturing and services. Improvements in transport connectivity-facilitated by ongoing infrastructure projects-have encouraged discussions about further liberalizing trade regulations to boost exports of textiles, food products, and tech services. Yet logistical barriers at border checkpoints persist, contributing to delays and raising costs for exporters looking to access regional markets.

5. Socially, Azerbaijan has implemented targeted measures to address income inequality, including subsidies for utilities and food staples. Observers note that the impact of these subsidies can be uneven; while they help low-income households cope with rising prices, they can also create fiscal pressure if oil revenues decline. The government has recently introduced pilot programs that tie subsidies to specific income thresholds, with the objective of reducing misuse of public funds.

6. Despite ambitious diversification plans, the oil sector continues to dominate. Economic analysts warn that reliance on hydrocarbons could impede sustainable growth, especially if global oil prices weaken or external demand slows. As part of its long-term development strategy, the government is promoting investment in green energy, incentivizing solar and wind power projects in the hope of creating new export opportunities for electricity.

7. Nonetheless, concerns about structural unemployment remain. Skill mismatches persist between job seekers and the needs of modern industries, particularly in the technology sector. Rural-urban migration has become more common, pressuring housing and public services in Baku, while leaving some villages with labor shortages. Recognizing these challenges, the Ministry of Education has partnered with private companies to revamp vocational education programs, aiming to align training with rapidly evolving market demands.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Azerbaijan (2019-2022)

Table 2: Trade and Social Indicators

QUESTIONS

Pakistan’s Economic Recovery Challenges

Pakistan faces persistent economic challenges as a developing nation with a rapidly growing, youthful population. The country’s fiscal position remains precarious, characterized by a large budget deficit fueled by rising defense spending and debt servicing costs, with interest payments consuming approximately 40% of total government revenue. This fiscal strain is further aggravated by persistent current account deficits and a dependence on external financial assistance from international institutions.

In response, the Pakistani government has engaged with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other multilateral lenders. Under its latest IMF bailout program, Pakistan has committed to a set of structural reforms, including the privatization of state-owned enterprises to improve efficiency, reforming energy subsidies to lower government expenditure, enhancing tax collection mechanisms to increase revenue, tightening monetary policy to control inflation, and maintaining a market-determined exchange rate to stabilize the external sector.

Government officials stress that international financial support is critical for economic recovery, as it restores investor confidence, attracts Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and facilitates access to additional funding from institutions like the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank. However, critics argue that IMF programs often lead to austerity measures that can slow economic growth and disproportionately impact low-income households.

Pakistan has a long history of engagement with the IMF, having participated in more than twenty IMF programs since the 1980s. A recurring pattern has emerged: temporary improvements in external balances followed by economic reversals, raising questions about the effectiveness of IMF-led reforms and Pakistan’s ability to sustain long-term economic stability.

Beyond macroeconomic stabilization, development economists emphasize the need for human capital investment to unlock Pakistan’s demographic dividend. Key policy recommendations include expanding education and vocational training programs to improve workforce productivity, promoting gender equality in labor markets to increase economic participation, and encouraging youth employment initiatives to leverage Pakistan’s young population.

While multilateral development banks support initiatives like green energy projects, infrastructure development, and digital transformation, concerns remain about policy implementation, governance challenges, and environmental sustainability. Some critics argue that economic stabilization efforts often overshadow long-term development goals, leading to an ongoing policy dilemma: how should Pakistan balance short-term fiscal stability with long-term economic development?

Table 1: Pakistan’s Government Expenditure and Debt Servicing

Table 2: Foreign Direct Investment and Current Account Balance in Pakistan

Current account deficit poses a challenge to Pakistan’s economy

Pakistan’s president has raised concerns about the increasing current account deficit, which grew to USD 12.12 billion in 2016/17 from USD 4.86 billion in 2015/16. This deficit is driven by rising imports and declining exports. Due to low prices of the imported goods in foreign markets, the president has proposed restricting the import of luxury, non-essential goods through quotas, aiming to mitigate the issue and reduce dependence on external borrowing.

The governor of Pakistan’s central bank supports the president’s concern, emphasizing that excessive non-essential imports contribute to the deficit and require borrowing from abroad. However, he noted that 32% of imports consist of capital goods essential for the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), agriculture, and construction.

Central bank advisors have suggested depreciating the rupee to address the trade deficit. The currency operates under a managed exchange rate system and is estimated to be overvalued by 20%. However, the central bank governor warns of the negative effects of depreciation, such as higher inflation.

Pakistan’s economic growth reached 5.3% in 2016, its highest in a decade, with an estimated increase to 6% in 2017. The government believes that boosting SME loans from 7-8% to 15-17% of total business loans will further enhance economic growth.

In addition to the current account deficit, fiscal policy decisions have led to a budget deficit, increasing public debt to 62% of GDP in 2016. The central bank recommends limiting public debt to 60% of GDP.

Table 1: Pakistan’s Current Account Data

Table 2: Key Economic Indicators

Indonesia’s Path to Economic Reform

Indonesia is undergoing a period of economic transformation, with ambitious reforms aimed at fostering long-term growth. The government has prioritized infrastructure expansion, streamlining regulations, and reducing corruption to attract investment. Additionally, tax incentives are being introduced to boost emerging industries such as transportation, telecommunications, metal production, and agricultural processing.

To fund infrastructure projects, which are projected to cost USD 22 billion, the government has reduced fuel subsidies, despite their role in making energy affordable for low-income households. While this move is expected to free up government funds, it has contributed to inflation, which has surged to 7.26%, exceeding the central bank’s target of 3–5%.

Indonesia’s economy also faces external challenges. Falling global prices of coal, gold, and palm oil, its major exports, have put downward pressure on export revenue. Meanwhile, economic growth has slowed, leading to declining consumer confidence. The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, has risen in recent years, reflecting concerns about income distribution.

To strengthen its economic foundation, the government is focusing on education and vocational training, aiming to reduce unemployment by upskilling its youthful workforce. Moreover, efforts to support small businesses include expanding access to micro-credit and making loans more accessible to entrepreneurs.

In response to economic pressures, Indonesia has also introduced trade protection measures, including tariffs and import restrictions, to shield domestic industries and encourage local production. However, critics argue that such policies may reduce efficiency and competitiveness in the long run.

Figure 1: Indonesian Development Statistics

Figure 2: Indonesia’s Economic Growth and Trade Statistics

Ghana to Seek Help from International Monetary Fund

Ghana has said it will seek financial aid in the form of a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help stop the rapid decline in the value of the cedi, Ghana’s currency, and close a large budget deficit. Ghana’s transformation from one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies to the home of the world’s worst-performing currency has become a concern. The exchange rate depreciated by 40% against the US dollar in 2014. The fall in the currency has led to increases in the price of consumer goods such as sugar and fuel; inflation is at an unacceptable 15%.

Despite being a major exporter of gold, oil, and cocoa, Ghana’s current account deficit has risen sharply to 12% of its gross domestic product (GDP). This is partly due to a rapid increase in demand for imports and falling gold prices. Additionally, oil revenues have not been as strong as expected.

The government is also struggling with a wide budget deficit, which stood at 10% of GDP last year. Ghana’s good reputation for fiscal responsibility has worsened considerably as the government tripled salaries for police officers and soldiers.

It is expected that the news of talks with the IMF will be positively received in international financial markets. The finance minister has said the step would help to stabilize the currency, to bring domestic prices under control, and also to restore investors’ confidence in Ghana’s economy.

A Ghanaian spokesperson noted that the IMF would insist on the government introducing measures to tackle inflation and reduce its budget deficit. The IMF says that Ghana needs to tighten its budget immediately, by reducing public sector wages, lowering subsidies, and increasing taxes. The IMF is likely to demand a limit on borrowing and perhaps some privatization of power and water companies.

Earlier this year, problems in the economy had led to nationwide protests, with thousands of workers across the country protesting in the streets about the rise in the cost of living. The country’s largest trade union says the government has been mismanaging the economy. In response to the protests, a government minister said that the government would work very hard to achieve economic development to make life easier for the working people of Ghana but that all Ghanaians would have to make “some sacrifices for the economy to recover.”

Table 1: Ghana’s Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 2: Selected Macroeconomic Data for IMF Evaluation