3.2 Variations in economic activity - aggregate demand and aggregate supply Questionbank

Albania is a country in Southeastern Europe with an estimated population of about 2.8 million in 2022. The Albanian economy has been transitioning from a centrally planned system to a market-based system and has experienced positive real GDP growth in recent years. Tourism is a significant contributor to Albania’s GDP, and the government has intensified efforts to promote the country’s attractions along its Adriatic and Ionian coasts.

In 2022, Albania’s unemployment rate was around 12%, partly due to structural challenges in the economy. The government operates a progressive personal income tax system, with rates ranging from 0% up to 23%. Corporate income tax is set at 15%. Value-added tax (VAT) on most goods and services stands at 20%.

Albania’s trade balance remains negative, as the country’s main exports (textiles, footwear, and mineral fuels) have not kept pace with imports (machinery, food, and manufactured goods). The government has embarked on several infrastructural projects to attract foreign investment and reduce transport costs, including a newly announced US$200 million investment in highways. Economists estimate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) in Albania to be about 0.8.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Albania

Table 2: Tourism Data in Albania (2022)

Guatemala is a Central American country with an estimated population of 17.9 million (2022). According to World Bank data, real GDP was approximately US$85 billion in 2022. Agriculture, particularly coffee, sugar, and bananas, makes up a significant portion of Guatemala’s exports (around 28% of total exports). While the tourism sector has been expanding, recent global events caused slowdowns. The country experiences persistent inequality, with a Gini coefficient estimated at about 0.48 in 2021. Poverty remains a major concern, especially in rural areas.

Guatemala’s tax system includes both direct and indirect taxes, although collection remains challenging. Personal income tax rates are progressive, with a top rate of 31%, while the corporate income tax rate is 25%. A value-added tax (VAT) of 12% applies to most goods. Government spending has focused on infrastructure and social programs to reduce poverty and increase potential long-term growth.

Table 1: Macroeconomic Indicators of Guatemala (2019–2022)

Table 2: Income Distribution in Guatemala (2021)

Table 3: Market for Guatemalan Coffee in the US (price per 50 kg bag)

Table 4: Tax Rates in Guatemala

Figure 1 (not drawn here) shows that, when government spending in Guatemala increases by US$1 billion, real GDP rises by an estimated US$2.5 billion. This suggests a government spending multiplier of 2.5.

Economic Dynamics in Angola

Angola, located in southwestern Africa, is one of the continent’s largest oil producers, with over 90% of its exports tied to crude oil. In recent years, its real GDP growth has been volatile, fluctuating between –1.2% and 2.4% annually from 2018 to 2022, reflecting significant dependence on global energy prices. Despite this oil dominance, the Angolan government has embarked on diversification initiatives to stabilize the economy and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.

Inflationary pressures have been a persistent challenge. In 2021, annual inflation reached 22%, eroding household purchasing power, particularly among lower-income groups. The Banco Nacional de Angola has responded with tight monetary policy, raising benchmark interest rates to 20% in 2022 to curb excess liquidity. Meanwhile, high food costs and depreciation of the kwanza (Angola’s currency) continue to push up import prices.

Angola’s external debt stood at approximately US$52 billion by the end of 2022, prompting government measures to manage debt-service obligations. The nation has engaged in negotiations with international organizations to secure favorable terms. While these arrangements have enabled the financing of infrastructure projects, critics argue that the burden of debt repayment poses risks to future fiscal stability.

In the domestic arena, the government introduced targeted subsidies for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and seeds to incentivize local food production. However, some policymakers and economists question the efficiency of these subsidies, citing the risk of resource misallocation and corruption. At the same time, partial privatization of several state-owned enterprises aims to encourage private sector investment and improve overall productivity.

Beyond the oil sector, Angola’s economy relies on diamonds, fisheries, and agriculture. In 2022, Angola exported approximately US$1.3 billion worth of diamonds, representing a crucial revenue source after oil. To further diversify, the government has prioritized investments in education and health to strengthen human capital, hoping to spur growth in technology-driven and service-based industries. Infrastructure expansion, especially in rural areas, is underway to bridge the urban-rural divide and stimulate market integration.

International trade relationships are also undergoing transformation. While Angola remains an active member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it has recently signed trade facilitation agreements to reduce import tariffs on selected capital goods. This move aims to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing, but concerns persist about local firms’ competitiveness, given power supply challenges and limited access to finance. Angola’s central bank manages the exchange rate of the kwanza, occasionally intervening in currency markets to stabilize fluctuations arising from volatile oil earnings.

Socioeconomic disparities are still evident, with an estimated Gini coefficient of 0.54 in 2021. Although the government has expanded health and education programs, rural communities remain underserved. Youth unemployment, recorded at 28% in 2022, underscores the need for better job creation policies and entrepreneurial support. The success of Angola’s economic reforms will likely hinge on sustained political commitment, effective resource management, and the gradual diversification away from oil-dependence toward a resilient, broad-based economy.

Table 1: Angola’s Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (2018–2022)

Table 2: Private Sector and Export Data for Angola (2018–2022)

Case Study: Germany’s Economy and Energy Transition in the Early 2020s

Germany, as Europe’s largest economy, has historically relied on its robust industrial sector, strong exports of machinery and automobiles, and high-value-added manufacturing. During the early 2020s, it faced a combination of opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, demand for German exports remained high in global markets, supported by a reputation for quality engineering. On the other hand, supply chain disruptions in semiconductors and rising energy prices, partly triggered by shifts in international energy markets and global uncertainties, weighed on industrial output.

In 2022, Germany recorded a nominal GDP of US$4.4 trillion, with real GDP growth at 1.8% a deceleration from the 2.5% reported in 2021. Average inflation rose to 7.5% in 2022, up from 3.2% the previous year. Some macroeconomists attributed this spike in inflation to a combination of higher global commodity prices, labor shortages, and an expansionary fiscal stance aimed at countering pandemic-related slowdowns. The government’s budget deficit reached 3.8% of GDP in 2022, spurred by increased health expenditures and targeted subsidies for certain industries, especially those transitioning to greener production methods.

A core focus of German policy has been the energy transition (“Energiewende”), which aims to phase out nuclear power while boosting renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. The government introduced new subsidies for households installing solar panels and for firms adopting more energy-efficient processes. Although these measures have helped reduce emissions, critics argue they impose higher short-term production costs on businesses. In 2022, approximately 46% of Germany’s electricity came from renewables, illustrating a notable increase compared to 35% five years earlier. Nevertheless, some economists worry about energy security, cautioning that reliance on imported natural gas may expose the economy to price volatility.

In microeconomic terms, the government has also promoted a minimum wage policy to address income inequality and stimulate productivity within the service sector. In 2021, the minimum wage was increased by almost 10%, affecting over 4 million workers. Critics claim that small businesses may struggle with higher labor costs, while proponents emphasize that increased household income boosts consumption. Moreover, with Germany’s aging population, policymakers have launched campaigns to attract high-skilled migrant labor to fill gaps in advanced manufacturing and technological innovation.

Internationally, Germany’s trade relationships with European Union partners remain pivotal. Its exporters benefit from lower intra-EU trade barriers, and the euro acts as a common currency among 20 member states. However, some German manufacturers report that demand is influenced by exchange rate fluctuations with non-eurozone trading partners, particularly the United States and China. Before 2022, the euro experienced periods of depreciation against the U.S. dollar, making German exports more competitive globally.

With sustainability goals on the horizon, Germany has advanced plans to tax carbon-intensive production and invest in green infrastructure. Early results suggest an uptick in purchases of electric vehicles (EVs). A government-backed EV subsidy, set at €4,500 per vehicle, significantly lowered the price for consumers and led to a 30% increase in EV registrations from 2021 to 2022. Automotive firms quickly adapted supply chains to meet demand, though rising lithium and battery costs introduced uncertainties. In parallel, the government occasionally intervenes in energy markets to stabilize electricity prices and support households facing higher utility bills.

Many German economists expect moderate growth prospects in the coming years but emphasize caution due to potential external shocks such as geopolitical tensions and global financial volatility. The labor market, historically strong with an unemployment rate around 5.3% in 2022, could see pressure if foreign demand weakens. Nevertheless, policymakers remain focused on balancing green initiatives, fiscal prudence, and social welfare reforms. Their strategy includes maintaining Germany’s status as a leading export-driven economy, advancing climate objectives, and sustaining social protections.

Table 1: Germany’s Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 2: Germany’s Energy and EV Transition Indicators

Estonia is a small Baltic nation of approximately 1.3 million people and a member of the European Union (EU). Its economy is characterized by a highly developed digital infrastructure, a strong commitment to innovation, and comparatively low public debt. The country has seen notable growth in service sectors such as tourism and information technology (IT). Estonia is also known for its relatively low level of corruption and ease of doing business.

In recent years, Estonia’s GDP growth has fluctuated. Between 2018 and 2019, real GDP grew steadily due to robust exports of IT services and growth in inbound tourism. However, the global economic slowdown in 2020 led to lower tourism revenues, affecting the country’s overall economic performance. Income inequality has been an area of focus for policymakers, given Estonia’s Gini coefficient has been moderate but slowly increasing. The government maintains several forms of taxation (including VAT, personal income tax, and corporate taxation), each contributing differently to government revenue.

Tourism is an important source of income, especially from visitors from Finland, Russia, and other EU countries. Average spending per tourist has tended to rise, but so have accommodation and transportation costs. The price elasticity of demand for inbound tourism is not negligible, as changes in travel costs and exchange rates influence tourist flows.

Estonia’s taxation system includes a flat personal income tax rate of 20%, although there are discussions about introducing progressive elements. VAT rates vary depending on the product category. Meanwhile, the government has contemplated expansionary fiscal measures to offset slower growth periods. Policymakers also debate the efficacy of supply-side policies (such as reducing labor taxes and encouraging business start-ups) to maintain Estonia’s competitiveness in the global digital economy.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Estonia (2018–2021)

Table 2: Estimated Demand for Inbound Tourism (annual)

Table 3: Government Tax Data (2021)

Table 4: Consumption and Multiplier Data (2021)

Economic and Social Developments in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is an international financial center located on the southern coast of China. Renowned for its open trading environment and large foreign exchange reserves, Hong Kong has historically pursued free-market policies to spur economic growth. However, recent challenges, including sluggish global demand and ongoing demographic shifts, have contributed to concerns about rising income inequality and persistent poverty. The government reports that 15.8% of the population (over 1.1 million people) live below the official poverty line, which is defined relative to median household income. In addition, Hong Kong’s Gini coefficient remains among the highest in developed economies, at around 0.539 in 2021.

Hong Kong’s role as an entrepôt for Chinese exports and as a major financial hub has driven its economic growth over several decades. Services make up close to 93% of GDP, while manufacturing accounts for only 1% of GDP. The region’s unemployment rate has typically been low, hovering around 2.9% in normal times. However, certain sectors particularly tourism and hospitality experienced a downturn due to global movements in travel restrictions and changing consumer behavior. This contributed to a slight pick-up in the overall unemployment rate to 4.7% by 2021.

The government maintains a near-balanced budget, attributable in part to revenue sources such as profits tax, stamp duties on real estate transactions, and land lease sales. Nevertheless, there is growing debate on whether Hong Kong’s minimal social welfare spending is sufficient to address structural poverty. Some argue that targeted subsidies and cash transfers are needed to prevent low-income households, especially the elderly, from slipping into deeper poverty. Indeed, the government launched a pilot scheme in 2020 offering housing vouchers to households below 60% of median income, claiming initial success in reducing homelessness by 15%.

Hong Kong also faces macroeconomic challenges. Real GDP growth decelerated from 3.0% in 2018 to -1.2% in 2019, before contracting again in 2020 due to global economic disruptions. By 2021, real GDP marked a modest recovery of 2.5%. Inflation remained relatively low, averaging 1.6% in 2021, owing partly to subdued consumer demand. At the same time, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) employs a currency board system pegging the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, which limits the use of independent monetary policy instruments.

In response to developmental concerns, the government has initiated programs focused on skill enhancement and vocational training to prevent the formation of a “poverty cycle,” where poor access to education and health-care perpetuates low wages and limited economic mobility. A new Child Development Fund aims to provide means-tested asset-building accounts for underserved youth, while strong emphasis is also being placed on technology upskilling and English language proficiency to enhance employability in service-oriented sectors.

Despite these measures, Hong Kong’s open economy leaves it exposed to global trade fluctuations. Exporters face falling demand from some of Hong Kong’s key markets, even as rising regional competition for port and logistics services puts additional pressure on trade revenues. On the other hand, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows rose to HKD 1.1 trillion in 2021, reflecting sustained investor confidence in Hong Kong’s legal framework and financial markets. Policymakers must navigate a tight balance between preserving Hong Kong’s “small government, big market” tradition and addressing socioeconomic gaps that threaten long-term development.

Below are selected data illustrating the economy’s performance and its social challenges.

Table 1: Hong Kong’s Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (2018–2021)

Table 2: Poverty and Development Indicators for Hong Kong

Denmark is a highly developed economy in Northern Europe with a population of about 5.9 million. It boasts one of the highest standards of living in the world, supported by a broad-based welfare system and progressive taxation. The service sector, advanced manufacturing, and renewable-energy technology form key parts of its economy. Denmark’s central bank has maintained low interest rates, helping to foster economic stability. However, challenges such as ensuring long-term sustainability of the welfare system and addressing potential future energy shortfalls remain.

Exports are crucial for Denmark’s economic success, with wind turbines, pharmaceuticals, and meat products contributing significantly to export revenues. Wind turbine manufacturers in Denmark have become global leaders, but recent shifts in global demand and competition from Asian producers have tested the capacity of local firms. Meanwhile, a high rate of personal and corporate income tax has provided funds for extensive public expenditure, including education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Denmark (2022–2023)

Table 2: Market for Wind Turbines Produced in Denmark

Table 3: Income Distribution in Denmark (2022)

Table 4: Overview of Tax Rates in Denmark

In 2023, an energy-infrastructure firm in Denmark is planning a major investment worth 1.2 billion DKK, and claims it could significantly boost the economy by generating additional consumption expenditures.

Wind Turbine Exports
Denmark exported 70 units of wind turbines at an average price of 11,000,000 DKK per unit to other European countries in 2022. Owing to rising demand for renewable energy worldwide, the price of wind turbines exported from Denmark is expected to rise from 11,000,000 DKK to 12,000,000 DKK per unit in 2023. However, global competition from producers in Asia might cause changes in the quantity demanded.

Estonia is a small, high-income European country with a population of around 1.33 million. The Estonian economy is highly open, with exports accounting for a large share of its GDP. In 2021, Estonia’s real GDP was approximately €34.5 billion, growing by 8.0%, while the 2022 figure rose to €36.4 billion, with real GDP growth of 3.5%. Over the same period, the unemployment rate declined from 6.2% to 5.6%.

Estonia is known for its advanced digital infrastructure, which has attracted investment in technology and services. However, inflation surged in 2022 due to global supply pressures and increased energy prices. Estonia has a relatively low level of income inequality compared to many countries, as measured by its Gini coefficient, which improved slightly from 0.31 in 2021 to around 0.30 in 2022.

Estonia’s tax system is characterized by a flat personal income tax rate of 20% and a 20% corporate tax on distributed profits. The government also raises revenue through value-added tax (VAT) at 20%, excise duties, and social security contributions of 33%. The timber industry plays a significant role in Estonian exports; higher prices for timber have contributed to fluctuations in export earnings.

Below are three tables presenting selected data for the Estonian economy:

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Estonia (2021–2022)

Table 2: Timber Market Data in Estonia

Table 3: Tax Revenue in Estonia (2022)