3.2 Variations in economic activity - aggregate demand and aggregate supply Questionbank

Albania is a country in Southeastern Europe with an estimated population of about 2.8 million in 2022. The Albanian economy has been transitioning from a centrally planned system to a market-based system and has experienced positive real GDP growth in recent years. Tourism is a significant contributor to Albania’s GDP, and the government has intensified efforts to promote the country’s attractions along its Adriatic and Ionian coasts.

In 2022, Albania’s unemployment rate was around 12%, partly due to structural challenges in the economy. The government operates a progressive personal income tax system, with rates ranging from 0% up to 23%. Corporate income tax is set at 15%. Value-added tax (VAT) on most goods and services stands at 20%.

Albania’s trade balance remains negative, as the country’s main exports (textiles, footwear, and mineral fuels) have not kept pace with imports (machinery, food, and manufactured goods). The government has embarked on several infrastructural projects to attract foreign investment and reduce transport costs, including a newly announced US$200 million investment in highways. Economists estimate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) in Albania to be about 0.8.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Albania

Table 2: Tourism Data in Albania (2022)

Guatemala is a Central American country with an estimated population of 17.9 million (2022). According to World Bank data, real GDP was approximately US$85 billion in 2022. Agriculture, particularly coffee, sugar, and bananas, makes up a significant portion of Guatemala’s exports (around 28% of total exports). While the tourism sector has been expanding, recent global events caused slowdowns. The country experiences persistent inequality, with a Gini coefficient estimated at about 0.48 in 2021. Poverty remains a major concern, especially in rural areas.

Guatemala’s tax system includes both direct and indirect taxes, although collection remains challenging. Personal income tax rates are progressive, with a top rate of 31%, while the corporate income tax rate is 25%. A value-added tax (VAT) of 12% applies to most goods. Government spending has focused on infrastructure and social programs to reduce poverty and increase potential long-term growth.

Table 1: Macroeconomic Indicators of Guatemala (2019–2022)

Table 2: Income Distribution in Guatemala (2021)

Table 3: Market for Guatemalan Coffee in the US (price per 50 kg bag)

Table 4: Tax Rates in Guatemala

Figure 1 (not drawn here) shows that, when government spending in Guatemala increases by US$1 billion, real GDP rises by an estimated US$2.5 billion. This suggests a government spending multiplier of 2.5.

ECONOMIC REALITIES AND POLICIES IN BANGLADESH

Bangladesh is a rapidly developing country in South Asia, recognized for its thriving ready-made garment (RMG) industry, which accounts for over 80% of export earnings. Government reforms since the early 2000s, aimed at boosting export competitiveness, have led to steady gains in real GDP. For instance, between 2019 and 2022, Bangladesh’s real GDP growth averaged 5.2% annually. However, persistent challenges such as high rural poverty rates (officially at 20.1%, with extreme poverty at 10.5%) and vulnerability to climate risks continue to threaten inclusive growth.

Remittances form a major pillar of the economy, totaling over US$24 billion in 2021. Inflows from the Bangladeshi diaspora support household consumption and reduce external vulnerabilities, contributing to the country’s foreign currency reserves. Even so, the government has been concerned about maintaining exchange rate stability, especially in light of global inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, which have driven up the cost of essential imports like fuel and machinery. To cope with rising expenditures on food and energy, the government raised tariffs on luxury goods while restricting administrative barriers for essential commodity imports.

On the microeconomic front, the government recently introduced a consumption tax on sweetened beverages to curb rapidly rising obesity rates. Local bottlers initially protested the policy, arguing it would reduce their profits and force layoffs in urban factories. Yet public health advocates insist that the potential long-term social benefits reduced health-care costs and a healthier workforce outweigh the short-term economic costs. Meanwhile, targeted subsidies on fertilizers aim to support agricultural productivity; farmers in the northern regions have long claimed that lack of affordable inputs restricts their ability to increase crop yields and incomes.

Bangladesh’s push for infrastructure improvements particularly in roads, ports, and energy has attracted modest but growing foreign direct investment (FDI), totaling around US$2.8 billion in 2022. Corporate tax incentives are given to firms that establish manufacturing plants in special economic zones, spurring output in electronics and pharmaceuticals. Yet the domestic labor force often lacks specialized skills, leading to high underemployment. The government’s Skills for Employment Initiative, launched in 2020, aims to address these gaps by providing technical training and apprenticeships to youths aged 18–30.

Concurrently, there are ongoing debates on reducing import tariffs further to encourage greater participation in regional trade blocs. Economists highlight that a more liberalized trade environment can improve access to cheaper raw materials for local industries. Critics, however, worry that swiftly removing tariffs might destabilize nascent domestic firms already grappling with competition from established foreign producers.

Bangladesh faces significant environmental and developmental hurdles. Climate change-related floods frequently destroy crops, thereby exacerbating rural poverty. Government officials have begun working with international donors to finance climate-resilient infrastructure elevated roads and flood barriers while also supporting microfinance programs targeted at poor households. These policies seek to break the vicious cycle of poverty, whereby low incomes lead to low investments in education and productivity, perpetuating underdevelopment. Early signs suggest that expanded access to small loans, particularly for female entrepreneurs, is reducing extreme poverty in several flood-prone districts.

Despite these efforts, inequalities persist. In urban areas, the Gini coefficient remains relatively high, reflecting income gaps within the service sector. Doctors and engineers earn significantly above the national average, boosting demand for private education that many poor households cannot afford. The government has tried to bridge this inequality by directing additional funds to public schools, focusing on science and technology curricula.

The prospects for Bangladesh hinge on effective policy coordination. Balancing short-term macroeconomic stability such as keeping inflation below 8% with long-term structural reforms in education, infrastructure, and trade policy remains a central challenge. The government’s ability to manage environmental risks, attract investment, and provide social protection will greatly influence whether Bangladesh can transition from a lower-middle-income to a higher-income country in the coming decades.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Bangladesh (2019–2022)

Table 2: Development and Social Indicators for Bangladesh

Estonia is a small Baltic nation of approximately 1.3 million people and a member of the European Union (EU). Its economy is characterized by a highly developed digital infrastructure, a strong commitment to innovation, and comparatively low public debt. The country has seen notable growth in service sectors such as tourism and information technology (IT). Estonia is also known for its relatively low level of corruption and ease of doing business.

In recent years, Estonia’s GDP growth has fluctuated. Between 2018 and 2019, real GDP grew steadily due to robust exports of IT services and growth in inbound tourism. However, the global economic slowdown in 2020 led to lower tourism revenues, affecting the country’s overall economic performance. Income inequality has been an area of focus for policymakers, given Estonia’s Gini coefficient has been moderate but slowly increasing. The government maintains several forms of taxation (including VAT, personal income tax, and corporate taxation), each contributing differently to government revenue.

Tourism is an important source of income, especially from visitors from Finland, Russia, and other EU countries. Average spending per tourist has tended to rise, but so have accommodation and transportation costs. The price elasticity of demand for inbound tourism is not negligible, as changes in travel costs and exchange rates influence tourist flows.

Estonia’s taxation system includes a flat personal income tax rate of 20%, although there are discussions about introducing progressive elements. VAT rates vary depending on the product category. Meanwhile, the government has contemplated expansionary fiscal measures to offset slower growth periods. Policymakers also debate the efficacy of supply-side policies (such as reducing labor taxes and encouraging business start-ups) to maintain Estonia’s competitiveness in the global digital economy.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Estonia (2018–2021)

Table 2: Estimated Demand for Inbound Tourism (annual)

Table 3: Government Tax Data (2021)

Table 4: Consumption and Multiplier Data (2021)

Economic and Social Developments in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is an international financial center located on the southern coast of China. Renowned for its open trading environment and large foreign exchange reserves, Hong Kong has historically pursued free-market policies to spur economic growth. However, recent challenges, including sluggish global demand and ongoing demographic shifts, have contributed to concerns about rising income inequality and persistent poverty. The government reports that 15.8% of the population (over 1.1 million people) live below the official poverty line, which is defined relative to median household income. In addition, Hong Kong’s Gini coefficient remains among the highest in developed economies, at around 0.539 in 2021.

Hong Kong’s role as an entrepôt for Chinese exports and as a major financial hub has driven its economic growth over several decades. Services make up close to 93% of GDP, while manufacturing accounts for only 1% of GDP. The region’s unemployment rate has typically been low, hovering around 2.9% in normal times. However, certain sectors particularly tourism and hospitality experienced a downturn due to global movements in travel restrictions and changing consumer behavior. This contributed to a slight pick-up in the overall unemployment rate to 4.7% by 2021.

The government maintains a near-balanced budget, attributable in part to revenue sources such as profits tax, stamp duties on real estate transactions, and land lease sales. Nevertheless, there is growing debate on whether Hong Kong’s minimal social welfare spending is sufficient to address structural poverty. Some argue that targeted subsidies and cash transfers are needed to prevent low-income households, especially the elderly, from slipping into deeper poverty. Indeed, the government launched a pilot scheme in 2020 offering housing vouchers to households below 60% of median income, claiming initial success in reducing homelessness by 15%.

Hong Kong also faces macroeconomic challenges. Real GDP growth decelerated from 3.0% in 2018 to -1.2% in 2019, before contracting again in 2020 due to global economic disruptions. By 2021, real GDP marked a modest recovery of 2.5%. Inflation remained relatively low, averaging 1.6% in 2021, owing partly to subdued consumer demand. At the same time, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) employs a currency board system pegging the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, which limits the use of independent monetary policy instruments.

In response to developmental concerns, the government has initiated programs focused on skill enhancement and vocational training to prevent the formation of a “poverty cycle,” where poor access to education and health-care perpetuates low wages and limited economic mobility. A new Child Development Fund aims to provide means-tested asset-building accounts for underserved youth, while strong emphasis is also being placed on technology upskilling and English language proficiency to enhance employability in service-oriented sectors.

Despite these measures, Hong Kong’s open economy leaves it exposed to global trade fluctuations. Exporters face falling demand from some of Hong Kong’s key markets, even as rising regional competition for port and logistics services puts additional pressure on trade revenues. On the other hand, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows rose to HKD 1.1 trillion in 2021, reflecting sustained investor confidence in Hong Kong’s legal framework and financial markets. Policymakers must navigate a tight balance between preserving Hong Kong’s “small government, big market” tradition and addressing socioeconomic gaps that threaten long-term development.

Below are selected data illustrating the economy’s performance and its social challenges.

Table 1: Hong Kong’s Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (2018–2021)

Table 2: Poverty and Development Indicators for Hong Kong

Denmark is a highly developed economy in Northern Europe with a population of about 5.9 million. It boasts one of the highest standards of living in the world, supported by a broad-based welfare system and progressive taxation. The service sector, advanced manufacturing, and renewable-energy technology form key parts of its economy. Denmark’s central bank has maintained low interest rates, helping to foster economic stability. However, challenges such as ensuring long-term sustainability of the welfare system and addressing potential future energy shortfalls remain.

Exports are crucial for Denmark’s economic success, with wind turbines, pharmaceuticals, and meat products contributing significantly to export revenues. Wind turbine manufacturers in Denmark have become global leaders, but recent shifts in global demand and competition from Asian producers have tested the capacity of local firms. Meanwhile, a high rate of personal and corporate income tax has provided funds for extensive public expenditure, including education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Denmark (2022–2023)

Table 2: Market for Wind Turbines Produced in Denmark

Table 3: Income Distribution in Denmark (2022)

Table 4: Overview of Tax Rates in Denmark

In 2023, an energy-infrastructure firm in Denmark is planning a major investment worth 1.2 billion DKK, and claims it could significantly boost the economy by generating additional consumption expenditures.

Wind Turbine Exports
Denmark exported 70 units of wind turbines at an average price of 11,000,000 DKK per unit to other European countries in 2022. Owing to rising demand for renewable energy worldwide, the price of wind turbines exported from Denmark is expected to rise from 11,000,000 DKK to 12,000,000 DKK per unit in 2023. However, global competition from producers in Asia might cause changes in the quantity demanded.

Estonia is a small, high-income European country with a population of around 1.33 million. The Estonian economy is highly open, with exports accounting for a large share of its GDP. In 2021, Estonia’s real GDP was approximately €34.5 billion, growing by 8.0%, while the 2022 figure rose to €36.4 billion, with real GDP growth of 3.5%. Over the same period, the unemployment rate declined from 6.2% to 5.6%.

Estonia is known for its advanced digital infrastructure, which has attracted investment in technology and services. However, inflation surged in 2022 due to global supply pressures and increased energy prices. Estonia has a relatively low level of income inequality compared to many countries, as measured by its Gini coefficient, which improved slightly from 0.31 in 2021 to around 0.30 in 2022.

Estonia’s tax system is characterized by a flat personal income tax rate of 20% and a 20% corporate tax on distributed profits. The government also raises revenue through value-added tax (VAT) at 20%, excise duties, and social security contributions of 33%. The timber industry plays a significant role in Estonian exports; higher prices for timber have contributed to fluctuations in export earnings.

Below are three tables presenting selected data for the Estonian economy:

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Estonia (2021–2022)

Table 2: Timber Market Data in Estonia

Table 3: Tax Revenue in Estonia (2022)

Serbia is a country located in Southeastern Europe with a population of approximately 6.9 million. Its official currency is the Serbian dinar (RSD). According to official estimates, Serbia’s nominal GDP in 2022 reached US$65.2 billion, growing from US$63.5 billion in 2021. The unemployment rate stands at 9.8%, although it can be higher in rural areas. Inflation in 2022 averaged about 11.5%, driven partly by increasing energy prices.

Serbia is well-known for its agricultural output—especially raspberries, where it ranks among the top producers in the world. Domestically, the government charges a 20% value added tax (VAT) on many goods and services. The personal income tax system has a base rate of 10%, rising gradually for higher income brackets, while corporate income is taxed at 15%. The Gini coefficient stands at 0.35, suggesting moderate income inequality.

Trade is a constant focus of Serbian economic policy. Serbia has strong trade links with the European Union (EU), which accounts for roughly 63% of its exports. Policymakers have debated using expansionary fiscal policy to support economic growth, focusing on infrastructure development and public investment.

Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Serbia (2022)

Table 2: Labour Market Data for Serbia (2022)

Table 3: Domestic Market for Raspberries in Serbia

Figure 1 (not shown) illustrates the domestic demand (Dd) and supply (Sd) for raspberries in Serbia, where the equilibrium price in 2022 was 300 RSD per kg. By early 2023, the price reached 350 RSD per kg as global demand picked up.

Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, is the world’s largest island with a population of about 56000 people. The economy relies heavily on fisheries (accounting for more than 90% of Greenland’s total exports), public sector services financed through grants from Denmark, and (increasingly) tourism. Recent explorations suggest that Greenland has untapped reserves of minerals and rare earth elements. However, high infrastructure costs and environmental considerations pose challenges to diversification.

Real GDP growth has been volatile due to changes in global demand for fish products and fluctuations in fish prices, while the population faces income inequality concerns. Recent debates in Greenland’s Parliament (Inatsisartut) focus on reforms to taxation and public spending, seeking to foster inclusive economic growth and reduce income disparities.

Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators of Greenland (2018–2021)

Table 2: Fish Exports Data (2019–2021)

Table 3: Income Distribution and Taxation(2021)

Figure 1: Simplified market for Greenlandic Halibut (2021)

Prices are measured in DKK per tonne. Demand (D) and supply (S) represent domestic demand and supply. Pw1 is the initial world price of 28 000 DKK per tonne, while Pw2 is a possible world price of 30 000 DKK per tonne.