IB History Breakdown of the Wartime Alliance by 1949 Notes

The Wartime Alliance Collapses: From Yalta to Blockade

Yalta, Potsdam, and the Meaning of Free Elections

1. The United States, Soviet Union, and Britain cooperated to defeat Nazi Germany, but the Yalta and Potsdam agreements left enough ambiguity for each side to claim betrayal.
   1. At Yalta, the three leaders, Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin, agreed that Germany would be divided into occupation zones and that liberated European countries would hold "free elections." What the Western Allies understood by "free elections" and what Stalin understood were fundamentally different. The percentages agreement that Churchill and Stalin had reached in October 1944 had assigned Soviet influence over Romania (90%), Bulgaria (75%), and other Eastern European states. For Stalin, post-war Eastern Europe was a security belt, not a region where Western-style democracy would be permitted.

Poland: The Test Case for Soviet Intentions

1. Poland was the most contentious case. The Western Allies had gone to war in 1939 partly in response to Germany's invasion of Poland and were committed to a democratic post-war Poland. But Stalin insisted on a Polish government friendly to the USSR, and given that Poland bordered the Soviet Union directly, he controlled the ground. The London-based Polish government in exile was sidelined. The Soviet-backed Lublin Committee took power. Free elections were promised at Yalta but not held.
2. The pattern that began in Poland repeated across Eastern Europe through 1945-1948. Communist parties in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria used electoral manipulation, coalition infiltration, and terror to eliminate political rivals.
   1. Salami tactics: Hungarian communist leader Matyas Rakosi used this term for removing opposition parties piece by piece until communists held power.

The Czechoslovak Coup (February 1948)

The Alliance at Victory

1. Common enemy: Defeating Nazi Germany took priority over political differences between the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union.
2. Soviet losses: Immense destruction made Stalin demand protection against another invasion from the west.
3. Western aims: Britain and the United States wanted representative governments, open trade, and a stable balance of power.
4. Second front: Stalin viewed the delayed invasion of France as evidence that the West accepted prolonged Soviet losses.
5. Atomic secrecy: Limited American disclosure about the nuclear programme strengthened Soviet suspicion.
6. Red Army: Its occupation of Eastern Europe gave Stalin practical control over post-war political outcomes.
7. Franklin Roosevelt: He hoped personal diplomacy and the United Nations could preserve cooperation.
8. Winston Churchill: He feared Soviet domination and sought to protect British influence.
9. German surrender: Victory removed the threat that had held the alliance together.
10. Security dilemma: Each side interpreted the other's defensive measures as possible aggression.

Yalta and Its Ambiguities

1. Yalta Conference: Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin met from 4 to 11 February 1945.
2. German zones: They agreed to divide Germany and Berlin among the Allied powers.
3. Polish borders: Poland shifted west while the Soviet Union kept territory acquired in 1939.
4. Lublin government: The Soviet-backed administration was to include democratic politicians.
5. Liberated Europe declaration: The Allies promised representative governments and early free elections.
6. Undefined enforcement: The declaration did not explain how elections would be supervised.
7. United Nations: Stalin agreed to join and gained separate seats for Ukraine and Belarus.
8. War against Japan: The Soviet Union promised to enter after Germany's defeat in return for concessions.
9. Different meanings: The West expected competition while Stalin prioritised governments friendly to Soviet security.
10. Delayed conflict: Yalta recorded compromise but left Germany and Eastern Europe unsettled.

Potsdam and a Harder Atmosphere

1. Leadership change: Harry Truman replaced Roosevelt and Clement Attlee replaced Churchill during 1945.
2. Potsdam Conference: The leaders met from 17 July to 2 August after Germany surrendered.
3. Occupation principles: They endorsed demilitarisation, denazification, democratisation, and decentralisation.
4. Reparations dispute: The Soviet Union wanted large transfers while the West feared economic collapse.
5. Zone formula: Each power took reparations mainly from its own zone.
6. Oder-Neisse line: Former German territory came under Polish administration pending a final treaty.
7. Population transfers: Millions of Germans were expelled from Eastern Europe.
8. Atomic test: Truman learned that the United States had successfully tested an atomic bomb.
9. Soviet response: Stalin accelerated the Soviet nuclear programme.

Poland and Sovietisation

1. Polish vulnerability: Stalin demanded a friendly state on a route historically used to invade Russia.
2. Western commitment: Britain had entered the war after Germany invaded Poland.
3. Lublin Committee: Moscow sponsored a communist-led administration that followed the Red Army west.
4. London Poles: The government in exile claimed legal continuity and domestic support.
5. Home Army repression: Soviet authorities arrested underground members who might resist communist rule.
6. June 1945 coalition: Non-communists entered government but communists controlled coercive institutions.
7. Referendum of 1946: Authorities manipulated the vote and intimidated opponents.
8. Election of 1947: Fraud produced victory for the communist-led bloc.
9. Salami tactics: Communists divided, absorbed, or eliminated opposition groups in stages.

Eastern Europe and the Western Response

1. Romania: Soviet pressure installed Petru Groza's communist-dominated government in 1945.
2. Bulgaria: The Fatherland Front removed opponents and abolished the monarchy.
3. Hungary: Communists used the security police against the stronger Smallholders Party.
4. Czechoslovakia: A coalition survived until the communist seizure of February 1948.
5. Cominform: Created in September 1947, it coordinated communist parties under Moscow.
6. Long Telegram: George Kennan argued in February 1946 for firm containment of Soviet power.
7. Iron Curtain speech: Churchill publicly described Europe's division in March 1946.
8. Truman Doctrine: The United States promised aid against armed minorities or outside pressure in March 1947.
9. Greek Civil War: American support replaced declining British aid to the anti-communist government.

Marshall Aid and Economic Division

1. European crisis: Food shortages, debt, damaged infrastructure, and weak production threatened political stability.
2. Marshall speech: The United States offered a coordinated recovery programme in June 1947.
3. Open offer: Aid was formally available to European countries, including the Soviet Union.
4. Soviet refusal: Stalin rejected conditions that required economic disclosure and coordination.
5. Eastern withdrawal: Czechoslovakia and Poland abandoned participation after Soviet pressure.
6. OEEC: Western states created the organisation in 1948 to allocate aid and coordinate recovery.
7. American motive: Aid combined humanitarian reconstruction, export interests, and political containment.
8. Soviet interpretation: Moscow saw the programme as an instrument of American influence.
9. Economic blocs: Western recovery and Soviet-directed planning deepened Europe's division.

Germany and the Berlin Crisis

1. Four-power problem: Joint occupation became harder as zones developed different systems.
2. Bizonia: The American and British zones merged economically in January 1947.
3. Western recovery: American officials treated German production as necessary for European reconstruction.
4. Soviet reparations: Equipment transfers from the eastern zone weakened prospects for common policy.
5. London Conference: Western states planned a federal government for their zones in 1948.
6. Deutsche Mark: Currency reform began in the Western zones in June 1948.
7. Berlin Blockade: Moscow cut land and water access to West Berlin.
8. Berlin Airlift: Western aircraft supplied the city until May 1949.
9. Strategic failure: The blockade strengthened Western unity without forcing withdrawal.

Cold War Blocs by 1949

1. Czechoslovak coup: The February 1948 takeover accelerated Western security cooperation.
2. Brussels Treaty: Five Western European states formed a defensive pact in March 1948.
3. NATO: The April 1949 treaty committed members to collective defence.
4. Federal Republic of Germany: The Western zones formed West Germany in May 1949.
5. German Democratic Republic: The Soviet zone formed East Germany in October 1949.
6. Soviet atomic bomb: The August 1949 test ended the American nuclear monopoly.
7. John Lewis Gaddis: He assigns greater responsibility to Stalin's coercive expansion.
8. Melvyn Leffler: He stresses mutual insecurity and exaggerated threat perception.
9. Overall judgement: Soviet consolidation and Western containment interacted to destroy the alliance.