IB Global Politics Forms of Conflict Notes

Understanding Conflict

Types of Conflict

1. Interstate Conflict
   1. Involves armed conflict between sovereign states.
   2. Often driven by territorial disputes, resource competition, or power struggles.
   3. Example: The India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir.
2. Intrastate Conflict
   1. Occurs within a single state, often involving government forces and non-state actors.
   2. Includes civil wars, insurgencies, and ethnic conflicts.
   3. Example: The Syrian Civil War.
3. Nonviolent Conflict
   1. Involves disputes resolved through peaceful means, such as negotiation or diplomacy.
   2. Example: The US-China rivalry, characterized by trade wars, technological competition, and diplomatic tensions without direct military confrontation.
4. Violent Conflict
   1. Involves the use of force or armed violence.
   2. Can be interstate or intrastate.
   3. Example: The Yemen Civil War (2014-present).
5. Asymmetric Conflict
   1. Occurs when parties have unequal military or economic power.
   2. Often involves guerrilla warfare or terrorism.
   3. Example: The US-led coalition against insurgent groups in Afghanistan.
6. Symmetric Conflict
   1. Involves parties with relatively equal power and resources.
   2. Example: The Russia-Ukraine War (2022-present), where both sides have deployed substantial conventional military forces.
7. Ideological Conflict
   1. Driven by differences in beliefs, values, or ideologies.
   2. Example: The US-China strategic competition, reflecting liberal democratic versus state-led authoritarian models of governance.
8. Resource-Based Conflict
   1. Arises from competition over natural resources like oil, water, or minerals.
   2. Example: Conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo over minerals.
9. Ethnic and Religious Conflict
   1. Involves tensions between different ethnic or religious groups.
   2. Example: The Rohingya crisis in Myanmar (2017-present).

The Impact of Conflict

1. Humanitarian Consequences
   1. Loss of life, displacement, and human rights violations.
2. Economic Impact
   1. Destruction of infrastructure, loss of livelihoods, and economic instability.
3. Political Consequences
   1. State fragility, regional instability, and shifts in power dynamics.

Case study

The Ethiopian Civil War and Tigray Conflict (2020-2022)

The Ethiopian Civil War and Tigray Conflict (2020-2022)

• Background
  • Armed conflict erupted in November 2020 between Ethiopia's federal government under PM Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
  • Rooted in political marginalization of Tigrayans after Abiy's centralization reforms dissolved the ruling coalition.
  • The TPLF held unauthorized regional elections in September 2020, which the federal government declared illegal.
• Nature of the Conflict
  • Combined elements of civil war (internal power struggle), ethnic conflict (Tigray, Amhara, Oromo tensions), and interstate war (Eritrean involvement).
  • Eritrean forces entered Tigray alongside Ethiopian federal troops, committing widespread atrocities.
  • Fighting spread beyond Tigray into Amhara and Afar regions, threatening state collapse.
• Humanitarian Impact
  • Estimated 300,000-500,000 deaths from violence, famine, and lack of medical care - one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century.
  • The federal government imposed a humanitarian blockade on Tigray, restricting food, medicine, and fuel.
  • Reports of mass sexual violence, ethnic cleansing, and possible genocide from all parties to the conflict.
• Resolution Attempts
  • The African Union mediated a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022.
  • The UN Security Council was paralyzed - Russia and China blocked stronger action, protecting Ethiopian sovereignty.
  • The agreement ended major fighting but Eritrean forces remained in Tigray and accountability mechanisms remain weak.
• IB Connections
  • Demonstrates how conflicts blur categories: simultaneously symmetric and asymmetric, civil and interstate.
  • Tests R2P and international response when a Nobel Peace laureate wages war on his own population.
  • Illustrates the African Union's growing role in conflict resolution versus UN and Western intervention.