Evolution of Diseases with Economic Development
The Epidemiological Transition: A Shift Related to Demographic Transition
Epidemiological Transition
The epidemiological transition is a model that describes the shift in disease patterns as societies develop economically. It explains changes in a country's health profile - a shift from infectious or contagious communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases.

The Epidemiological Transition Model consists of four stages
1. Pestilence and Famine
- In the earliest stage, societies face high mortality rates due to infectious diseases and malnutrition.
- Poor sanitation, limited healthcare, and food scarcity exacerbate these challenges.
During this stage, life expectancy is low, and population growth is often stagnant due to high death rates.
2. Receding Pandemics
- As economies grow, investments in sanitation, healthcare, and infrastructure lead to a decline in infectious diseases.
- Vaccinations, antibiotics, and improved public health systems play a critical role.
3. Degenerative Diseases
- With further advancements in medicine and lifestyle changes, chronic diseases (such as heart disease and cancer) become the leading causes of death.
- Life expectancy continues to rise, but lifestyle-related health issues emerge as significant concerns.
In HICs, heart disease and obesity have become leading causes of death.
NoteThis stage highlights the paradox of development: as infectious diseases recede, new health challenges emerge.
4. Delayed Degenerative Diseases
- In the final stage, advancements in medical technology and preventive care extend lifespans and delay the onset of degenerative diseases.
- However, age-related illnesses such as Alzheimer's and osteoporosis become more prevalent.
Japan, with one of the world's highest life expectancies, faces a growing burden of dementia and other age-related conditions.
Common MistakeMany students assume that chronic diseases only affect HICs. However, MICs are increasingly experiencing these issues as well.
Implications of an Ageing Population
- As societies progress through the epidemiological transition, they often face the challenge of an ageing population.
- This demographic shift has significant social and economic implications.
1. Rising Healthcare Costs
- Chronic diseases and long-term care needs drive up healthcare expenditures.