Assessing Future Risks
- As we look to the future, the risks from geophysical hazards are intensifying.
- This is due to a combination of natural and human factors.
Managing These Risks Effectively Requires Understanding the Key Drivers
- Event frequency
- Population growth
- Urbanization
Event Frequency: The Role of Climate Change
- Most of geophysical hazards are not caused by climate change and their frequency and intensity are not altered.
- However, landslides are likely to become more common due to changing environmental conditions, especially unpredictable and more intense precipitation.
Whereas climate change does not impact geophysical hazards directly, it might make secondary hazards (like lahars or mudlows) more intense due to changes in the moisture of the soil and biodiversity loss, exposing slopes to erosion.
Moreover, climate change increases overall vulnerability of communities, especially in LICs.
Intensifying Storms and Landslides
- Warmer temperatures lead to more intense storms, which increase rainfall in short periods.
- This saturates soil, making it more prone to landslides.
When assessing future risks, consider both primary hazards (e.g., earthquakes) and secondary hazards (e.g., landslides triggered by earthquakes).
Population Growth: Increasing Exposure
- As the global population grows, more people are living in hazard-prone areas.
- This increases the potential for loss of life and property during geophysical events.
Expansion into Hazard Zones
High population density in urban areas often forces people to settle in unsafe locations, such as:
- Near fault lines (e.g., San Andreas Fault in California).
- On volcanic slopes (e.g., Mount Vesuvius in Italy).
- In floodplains (e.g., Ganges River Basin in India).
It's a common misconception that only low-income countries face high exposure to hazards. High-income countries also have vulnerable populations living in risky areas.
Strain on Resources and Infrastructure
- Rapid population growth strains emergency services, healthcare, and infrastructure, reducing the capacity to respond effectively to disasters.
- This is particularly evident in low-income countries, where resources are already limited.
