MYP Individuals & Societies Demographic Transition Notes

How Do Birth And Death Rates Shape Population Change?

1. Population change isn't random.
2. Over time, many countries experience a broadly similar shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates.
3. The demographic transition model (DTM) is a simplified way to describe this pattern and to think about its impacts on people, services, and economies.

The Five Stages Show A Shift From Survival To Ageing

1. The DTM has five stages.
2. Countries often move through them as living conditions and development change, although the timing and exact path vary.

Stage 1: high birth rates and high death rates keeps population low

1. In Stage 1, families tend to have many children, but many people die young. This produces a low, stable total population because births and deaths are both high.
2. Typical reasons include limited medical care and sanitation, frequent disease outbreaks, unreliable food supply, and little access to contraception.

Stage 2: death rates fall first, so population grows rapidly

1. In Stage 2, the death rate drops sharply while the birth rate stays high.
2. The gap between births and deaths widens, creating high natural increase and rapid population growth.
3. Common drivers include cleaner water and better sanitation, vaccination and basic healthcare, and improved food production and distribution.

Stage 3: birth rates fall, slowing growth

1. In Stage 3, the birth rate begins to fall.
2. The death rate is already low, so the gap between births and deaths narrows and growth slows.
3. Reasons for falling birth rates often include:
   1. Improved education (especially for girls)
   2. More women in paid employment
   3. Access to contraception and family planning
   4. Urbanization (children become less economically useful for farm work)