3.3.1 Divergent Views on Population and Resources Notes

Perspectives on Sustainability and Resource Limits

1. Imagine standing at a crossroads, facing three paths:
   1. One warns of crisis.
   2. Another promises innovation.
   3. The third calls for balance.
2. These paths represent pessimistic, optimistic, and balanced views on sustainability and resource limits.

The Origin of Pessimistic View: Thomas Malthus

1. In 1798, Thomas Malthus produced his essay on the "Principle of Population," in which he believed that population was growing at a faster rate (exponentially) than resources (arithmetically).
2. His ideas were one-dimensional as he focused only on availability of food. They were based on observations made during early years of the Industrial Revolution and accelerated population growth observed in the late 18th Century in England.
3. According to Thomas Malthus, as the size of population approaches the amount of resources available, preventive checks (reduced birth rates) can allow avoiding major famine and war on resources.
4. However, if the size of population exceeds the amount of resources available, positive checks - increased mortality and reduction of the population size due to famine and war - are inevitable.
5. These positive checks are known as "Malthusian Catastrophe".
   

Pessimistic Views Revisited: Neo-Malthusian Theory

1. In the early 1960s global population growth was the fastest in history reaching over 2% annually (doubling global population in about 30 years).
2. This paste of growth fueled pessimistic views on relationship between population size and resources available and led to serious of publications and approaches called Neo-Malthusian as they were based on the original ideas of Thomas Malthus.
3. Neo-Malthusianism argues that population growth outpaces resource availability, leading to crises like famine, war, and disease.

Core Ideas of Neo-Malthusianism

1. Exponential Population Growth:
   1. Population grows exponentially (e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8).
2. Linear Resource Growth:
   1. Food and resources grow linearly (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4).
3. Inevitable Crises:
   1. When population outstrips resources, crises occur to restore balance.

Example

• The Limits to Growth Model developed in 1972 by the Club of Rome predicted that if current trends continued, resource depletion would lead to a collapse in population and industrial production in the 21st Century.
• This model is multi-dimensional as it evaluates availability of different resources and focuses on population growth as well as rising consumption.
• The Limits to Growth Model opened discussion about planetary boundaries of growth.
• It laid foundations for future ideas like sustainable development.

Criticisms of Neo-Malthusianism

1. Underestimates Human Innovation:
   1. Critics argue it overlooks technological advancements that increase resource efficiency.
2. Simplifies Complex Systems:
   1. Assumes uniform global trends, ignoring regional differences in resource use and population growth.

Optimistic View: Anti-Malthusian Response

1. The Anti-Malthusian perspective arose in response to Neo-Malthusian theories.
2. Its major ideas are:
   1. Technological Optimism: Innovations in technology and agriculture can enhance resource availability.
   2. Demographic Transition: Economic development leads to declining birth rates as societies improve living conditions.