Stimulus

Text extract (adapted): "The Nile is a lifeline shared by three states with very different powers. Ethiopia began filling the giant reservoir behind its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in 2020, calling the project a right to develop and to bring electricity to millions. Downstream, Egypt depends on the Nile for almost all its fresh water and has called any threat to its share an existential, even military, matter. Sudan sits uneasily in between. Years of African Union-brokered talks produced no binding deal on how fast to fill the dam or how to manage a drought. Analysts warn that as populations grow and rivers shrink, water is becoming the resource most likely to turn interdependence into confrontation."

(d) Evaluate the extent to which growing water scarcity makes interstate conflict more likely than cooperation.