Are IB predicted grades usually higher than final grades?

Predicted grades are sometimes higher than final grades, but this is not true for every student or school. An independent multi-school dataset found that 27% of subject predictions were above the awarded grade, while 23% were below it and approximately 50% matched exactly. At Diploma level, totals were more commonly overpredicted, although most were still within a few points of the final score. Results vary because schools use different evidence and have different levels of experience calibrating work against IB standards. A prediction should therefore be treated as a reasonable forecast rather than a promised minimum.

Can an IB predicted grade be changed before university applications?

A school may change a predicted grade before it is formally submitted, but this depends on its internal policy and deadlines. Students should ask which assessments remain eligible to influence the prediction and whether university and IB submission predictions are set at different times. A request for reconsideration is strongest when supported by recent timed assessments, completed coursework, and consistent performance at the target level. Effort or potential alone will not normally justify a higher prediction without assessment evidence. Once a relevant submission deadline has passed, the school may be unable or unwilling to revise the grade.

Does the IB use predicted grades to calculate final grades?

In a normal examination session, predicted grades are not inserted into the mathematical calculation of final subject grades. Final grades come from the assessed components, their official weightings, moderation where applicable, and the relevant grade boundaries. The IB does use predicted grades as contextual information during quality-control processes, including checks for unexpectedly low outcomes. That use does not mean a prediction overrides examination or coursework marks. Exceptional non-examination arrangements can operate differently, so students should follow session-specific IB guidance if major assessment disruptions occur.

How close should an IB final score be to the predicted score?

There is no official rule stating that a final Diploma score must fall within a particular number of predicted points. In one large independent dataset, about 66% of Diploma totals were within 2 points of the prediction and 81% were within 3 points. Exact totals were much less common because small subject-level differences accumulate across six subjects and the core. A gap of 1-3 points can therefore occur without any single result being dramatically unexpected. Larger gaps should prompt a careful review of exam performance, coursework moderation, boundaries, and the evidence used for the original prediction.

Do IB grade boundaries change every year?

IB grade boundaries can change between examination sessions because each set of examination papers may differ in difficulty. Senior examiners and IB staff use candidate work, grade descriptors, statistical evidence, and teacher feedback when setting the boundaries. Historical boundaries are therefore useful planning references, not guaranteed future cut-offs. Students should compare the correct subject, level, syllabus, session, and examination variant where relevant. The safest revision target is a consistent mark above the historical boundary range for the desired grade.

What happens if final IB grades miss a university offer?

Missing a predicted score does not automatically mean losing a university place because the institution must compare the actual results with the precise offer conditions. Some universities confirm applicants who miss narrowly, while others may offer an alternative course or wait for further information. Students should contact the university promptly and ask their IB coordinator how many marks separate each result from the next boundary. If a result appears questionable, the school can discuss an Enquiry Upon Results, although marks may move up or down. Students should also investigate insurance choices, clearing systems, or alternative admission routes available in the relevant country.

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IB Predicted Grades vs Final Grades Explained

IB Diploma University Prep IB IB Grading

• 26 Sept 2026•10

IB Predicted Grades vs Final Grades Explained

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IB Predicted Grades vs Final Grades Explained | RevisionDojo

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IB Predicted Grades vs Final Grades Explained

IB Diploma University Prep IB IB Grading

• 26 Sept 2026•10

IB predicted grades vs final grades are related, but they are not calculated in the same way. A predicted grade is a teacher's evidence-based forecast of likely achievement. A final grade is the official result produced from assessed work, component weightings, moderation, marking, and session-specific grade boundaries.

Predictions can influence university applications, especially conditional offers, but they are not guarantees. Subject predictions often match or come within one grade of the final result, while exact Diploma totals are harder to predict because differences across six subjects and the core can accumulate.

IB predicted grades vs final grades at a glance

Feature	Predicted grade	Final grade
Who determines it?	Subject teacher and school	The IB through its assessment process
When is it set?	Before final results, often during DP2	After assessed components are completed and marked
Main evidence	Mocks, tests, coursework, class performance, and IB standards	Examinations, internally assessed work, externally assessed coursework, TOK, and the Extended Essay
Subject scale	1-7	1-7
Main purpose	Forecast achievement and support applications	Record official achievement and determine Diploma outcomes
Part of the final calculation?	Normally no	It is the official outcome

The IB defines a predicted grade as the grade a teacher expects a candidate to achieve based on available evidence and knowledge of IB standards. Predictions are also submitted for Theory of Knowledge and the Extended Essay using their respective scales.

How IB predicted grades are set

There is no worldwide formula requiring every school to weight evidence identically. Teachers are expected to make the most accurate professional judgment possible rather than deliberately overpredicting or underpredicting.

Evidence may include:

Timed mock examinations and topic tests
Internal Assessment progress or completed work
Essays, oral tasks, practical work, performances, or portfolios
Consistency and sustainable improvement across DP1 and DP2
Official assessment criteria and grade descriptors
Historical boundaries used cautiously as guides

A prediction should represent the grade a student is expected to achieve, not the highest possible result under ideal conditions. Effort and potential provide context, but they should not replace evidence demonstrating the relevant standard.

Schools may create university application predictions before submitting official predictions to the IB. Because these may use different deadlines and evidence, students should ask which prediction is being discussed and whether reconsideration is possible. See RevisionDojo's guides to predicted grades and university offers and maximizing predicted and final grades.

How final IB grades are calculated

A final subject grade follows the assessment model in the current subject guide. Depending on the course, this may include examination papers, an Internal Assessment, oral work, portfolios, performances, or externally assessed coursework.

The process generally involves:

Marking each assessment component.
Moderating internally assessed work where applicable.
Scaling component marks according to official weightings.
Combining the weighted marks into an overall subject mark.
Comparing that mark with the session's grade boundaries.
Awarding a final subject grade from 1-7.

The IB's assessment guide for students and parents distinguishes marks from grades. Marks show how much credit work earned, while grades describe the standard demonstrated. Consequently, the same percentage does not automatically produce the same grade across subjects or sessions.

How grade boundaries affect results

IB grade boundaries are cut-off marks used to convert aggregated marks into grades. They are established using examiner judgment, candidate work, grade descriptors, statistical evidence, and feedback about the examinations.

Boundaries can change when paper difficulty changes. A demanding paper may have a lower boundary, while an easier paper may have a higher one. Historical boundaries are useful estimates, but they cannot reveal future cut-offs and must match the correct subject, level, syllabus, and session.

RevisionDojo explains how IB grade boundaries work. Its IB Grade Calculator can convert representative practice marks into an estimate, but this is not an official result or guarantee.

How often predictions and final grades differ

The IB does not publish one worldwide prediction-accuracy rate covering every school and session. However, an independent analysis of 143,874 subject predictions from 70 schools found that approximately 50% matched the awarded grade, 27% were higher, and 23% were lower. The average absolute difference was about 0.5 subject-grade points.

Exact Diploma totals were less common. About 15% matched exactly, while approximately 66% were within 2 points and 81% were within 3 points. This is unsurprising because several small subject differences can accumulate across the Diploma score.

These are not official global IB statistics. School calibration, subjects, cohorts, and assessment conditions affect accuracy, and underprediction can occur as well as overprediction. The most defensible conclusion is that subject predictions are often close, while exact totals out of 45 are substantially harder to forecast. RevisionDojo provides further analysis of predicted versus final-grade accuracy.

Why final grades may differ

Common reasons include:

Examination performance: Revision may produce improvement, while anxiety, timing problems, illness, or incomplete answers may reduce marks.
IA moderation: The IB can adjust internally awarded marks when a sampled department's marking is too generous or severe.
Different weightings: School predictions may emphasize mocks, while final results follow the subject's official component weightings.
Boundary movement: Teachers predict before final boundaries are known, so candidates near a cut-off may move either way.
Cumulative differences: Two subjects finishing one grade lower can turn a predicted 38 into a final 36 without a dramatic overall collapse.

What students should do

Treat a prediction as a planning estimate rather than a result already earned. Record each subject's components, weightings, target grade, current evidence, and recurring weaknesses. Then complete timed practice, classify lost marks, repair specific gaps, attempt unfamiliar questions, and retest independently.

Track several performances rather than relying on one unusually strong mock. RevisionDojo's Mock Exams guide, Questionbank, Study Notes, Flashcards, and Jojo AI can support this process, although final checks should be completed without hints.

If final grades are lower than predicted, compare them with the university's precise conditions. Offers may specify an overall total, Higher Level grades, or named subjects. Ask the coordinator for available marks and boundary information, as explained in the IB assessment FAQ.

An Enquiry Upon Results may be appropriate when a result appears inconsistent with the assessed standard. It is not a request for extra marks merely because a candidate is close to a boundary, and marks can move in either direction. Students should also contact the university promptly because it may confirm the place, offer an alternative, or wait for a review.

Common misconceptions

A predicted 7 guarantees a final 7. It is an evidence-based expectation, not a promise.
The IB copies predicted grades. Normal final grades come from assessed components and boundaries.
Boundaries are fixed percentages. They can vary between subjects and sessions.
A lower result proves the prediction was poor. Examinations, moderation, weighting, and boundaries may contribute.

Conclusion

In IB predicted grades vs final grades, the prediction is a professional forecast, while the final grade is the official assessment outcome. Students should focus on producing consistent evidence under realistic conditions rather than treating a prediction as secured. RevisionDojo's Grade Calculator, Mock Exams, Questionbank, Study Notes, and Jojo AI can help identify weaknesses and strengthen independent performance.

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